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| Lt Col Rick Francona, USAF (Ret) |
As a new conflict with Iran looms, the Kurds in northern Iraq and their autonomous region could face conflict as they navigate the complex arena.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
NOVEMBER 2, 2026
The Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq sits at the crossroads of the Middle
East. It borders Turkey, Iran, and Syria. This puts it in a strategic position
and has also made it a target for its neighbors. Rick Francona, a retired US
Air Force intelligence officer, spoke to The Jerusalem Post about the Kurds and
the challenges ahead in the Middle East. “The Iraqi Kurds are the only ones with
any hope of maintaining their autonomy,” he said. “There is no good way forward
for anyone in the region as long as the IRGC is running Iran.”
Iran has been targeting the autonomous Kurdistan Region of
northern Iraq with missile and drone attacks. One reason for this approach is
that Kurdish Iranian opposition groups have long had a presence in the
Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq because Kurds from Iran have fled there over
the years.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) also has other challenges. It has to work on relations with Baghdad to secure its budget. It lacks air defenses, partly because Baghdad has not supplied the region with them. Iran has carried out more than 1,0000 drone and missile attacks on the Kurdistan region since February 2026, when the US and Israel began airstrikes on Iran.
Francona held NSA,
CIA, DIA assignments
Francona has held assignments at the National Security
Agency (NSA), Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and Defense Intelligence
Agency (DIA) and knows the region deeply. He spoke to the Post about what may
come next for the Kurdistan region and also the broader region around it. With
decades of experience serving in the Middle East, including postings in Syria
and Iraq and work with the Kurds in northern Iraq, he knows the many challenges
ahead.
“The KRG, unfortunately, is a passive participant in the hostilities in the region. As long as the Iranian Kurds maintain a presence in the KRG, they will be targets for the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). I don’t see the Iraqi Kurds not providing a safe haven for their Iranian counterparts,” Francona says.
Francona a former
CNN, NBC military analyst
Francona, who after retirement was a military analyst for NBC News and CNN, looks back at the 1990s when the US was aiding Kurds in northern Iraq. The Kurds had suffered genocide at the hands of the Saddam Hussein regime. In the 1990s, they began to create the autonomy that led to the KRG.
“I think we actually got a lot of it right. In the
mid-1990s, we were trying to maintain neutrality between the two main Kurdish
parties – the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan (PUK). It was at times a difficult task, as at times it seemed they
were more intent on fighting each other than keeping the Iraqis out of northern
Iraq,” says Francona. The KDP and PUK are the two large Kurdish political
parties. They also have different backgrounds and leanings.
He further explains the complex background. “We underestimated the intra-Kurdish animosity, to the point that we began to suspect that the KDP was secretly working with the Iraqi regime against the PUK, while the PUK was dealing almost openly with the Iranians. I remember being in al-Sulaymaniyah when several what we believed to be IRGC members were staying at the same PUK guest house.” The divisions will remain. Francona says that the situation between the Kurdish parties, “toleration and limited cooperation – will continue.”
With Kurdish politics divided, questions remain about what
happens in Baghdad. US President Donald Trump has supported Iraq's new Prime
Minister, Ali al-Zaidi. “Perhaps President Trump believes that new Iraqi Prime
Minister ‘Ali al-Zaydi deserves more support in hopes that he will try to
distance the Iraqi government further away from the Iranians. He has at least
tried to get some control over the various Iranian-backed militias in the
country, and created conditions that allowed the US to finally end its mission
in Iraq,” Francona notes.
This is important because the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have often been involved in attacks on the Kurdistan Region and also on US diplomatic facilities and US troops. For instance, Kataib Hezbollah, one of the Iranian-backed militias, killed three Americans in an attack in Jordan in January 2024.
I asked Francona if he thinks there is a coherent long-term
strategy for the Kurdish region. “I don’t see anything beyond what we are doing
now, except, of course, covert support to the Iranian Kurdish groups in their
efforts against the IRGC. After the war in Iran ends, probably not even that.
We have a sad history of leaving the Kurds on their own.”
This is a concern many Kurds have. It also helped explain
why they are very cautious about what may come next in Iran. While some
believed there should be a Kurdish uprising in Iran, they know that they are
only one of many groups in Iran, and their region is a mountainous region of
northwestern Iran. Iran is also already cracking down on any Kurdish displays of
opposition. Iran also wants Baghdad to rein in the Kurdish Iranian opposition
groups who have facilities in Iraq.
Will Iraq do that? “It may depend on how much support the
Iraqi Kurds provide to the Iranian Kurdish groups currently in Iraq. If these
groups are effective against IRGC units in Iran, the Iranians may use these
militias against the Iraqi Kurds. That said, I don’t believe they would be
effective against the Kurds Regional Guards,” Francona says. At the same time,
it’s not clear if the new Iraqi prime minister will be able to rein in the
Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. “I suspect there will be considerable pushback
from the Iranians who value the proxy arrangement.”
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq remains a stable and important
polity. Francona notes that the “Iraqi Kurds are the only ones with any hope of
maintaining their autonomy”; however, he says that “Kurdish autonomy writ large
continues to suffer.”
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq has weathered the storms of the
last decades. The Kurdish-led region of eastern Syria, which existed from
2013-2026, largely collapsed in January 2026 and agreed to integrate into the
new Syrian government. The US forces that had been backing the Kurdish-led
Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern Syria in the war against ISIS left Syria.
“Since the existence of the KRG is codified in the Iraqi
constitution, they have a legal framework that does not exist in the other
countries. That may change in Iran, depending on the continuation or not of the
Islamic Republic. The Kurds in Syria have lost what little autonomy they had,
and the Syrian Democratic Forces have been disbanded,” Francona adds. “In
Turkey, if the PKK disarmament succeeds, the Kurdish fighters will be
assimilated into Turkish society, with no autonomy. If they leave their bases
in northern Iraq, that will lessen the tensions between the Iraqi Kurds and
Ankara.”
This is the larger context as it exists today in these key Kurdish areas that sit at a crossroads between Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Many challenges remain in the future.
The article can be found here.
