August 30, 2017

The deal to relocate ISIS fighters to eastern Syria actually makes sense


In a controversial agreement reached by the Syrian government, its close ally Lebanese Hizballah, and the Lebanese government, hundreds of fighters of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have been guaranteed and provided safe passage from their besieged enclave in the Arsal district of northeastern Lebanon and the Qalamun area of western Syria to the city of Albu Kamal.

The agreement has been criticized by both the U.S.-led coalition and the Iraqi government. Iraqi Prime Minister Haydar al-'Abadi remarked that while Iraqi troops are busy killing ISIS fighters, the Syrian government is busing other ISIS fighters to the Iraqi border.

In return for safe passage of over 300 of its disarmed fighters and their families, approximately 700 persons total, ISIS agreed to surrender its positions in Syrian-Lebanese border areas, repatriate the remains of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) member beheaded by ISIS as well as the remains of two Hizballah fighters, reveal the burial site of several Lebanese Army soldiers, and release a Hizballah fighter being held prisoner.

Although the deal was widely criticized, it follows a pattern of Syrian government agreements with various rebel groups. The terms are similar - a rebel group agrees to surrender territory in return for safe passage to another rebel-held area, usually in Idlib governorate.

These agreements have effectively closed pockets of resistance and allowed the Syrian government to re-establish control over cities and towns without having to forcibly evict entrenched and committed fighters, thus avoiding unnecessary civilian casualties and damage to the country's already severely damaged infrastructure.


(Click on image for larger view)

Albu Kamal sits on the Euphrates River on the Syrian-Iraq border opposite the Iraqi city of al-Qa'im. Both sides of the border are currently controlled by ISIS. As the Iraqis eliminate the ISIS pockets of resistance in Tal'Afar and al-Huwayjah, the Syrians reduce the ISIS pockets between Homs and Dayr al-Zawr, and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces eliminates the ISIS presence in al-Raqqah, virtually all of the remaining ISIS fighters will be located in the Euphrates Valley.

Taking an analytical look at this specific deal in the Lebanese-Syrian border area, it makes sense for all parties:

- The 300 or so ISIS fighters are allowed to relocate - and live to fight another day. As we have seen in the fighting in Mosul and now al-Raqqah and Tal'afar, small numbers of fanatical, willing-to-die ISIS fighters can be very effective in defending urban terrain.

- The Lebanese government has effectively removed ISIS from its territory, with minimal casualties to the Lebanese Army and minimal damage to the country's infrastructure.

- The Syrian government has reduced yet another enemy pocket, this time an ISIS enclave. They are effectively reducing ISIS pockets in central Syria as they move east towards the ISIS-surrounded major city of Dayr al-Zawr and its adjacent air base. These reduced pockets of resistance free up badly needed forces for fighting ISIS.

Combined with the Russian-Turkish-Iranian brokered ceasefires holding in many areas, the Syrians have been able to concentrate much more force on the campaign to relieve the city and garrison in Dayr al-Zawr - they are now within 40 miles of the city.

I would note that despite Syrian press reporting about the prowess of the "ISIS hunters," without Russian airpower and the presence of IRGC and Hizballah troops the Syrians would be hard pressed to move on Dayr al-Zawr.

The move of ISIS fighters into Dayr al-Zawr governorate is another phase in the fighting that will culminate in the Battle of the Euphrates. That final fight to eliminate ISIS will take place somewhere in the Euphrates Valley, possibly near Albu Kamal. See my earlier piece on this: The fight against the Islamic State grinds on….

The final battles may also involve coordinated Iraqi and Syrian military operations. If that happens, it will be interesting to see what roles the American and Russian forces will play to support their respective allies.




August 19, 2017

The fight against the Islamic State grinds on….


The pace of operations in the assault on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) self-proclaimed capital city of al-Raqqah has slowed as the fighting moves into the densely-populated urban streets. The attacking forces of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are now faced with the realities of urban combat, arguably the most difficult type of fighting.

The U.S.-backed and equipped SDF is composed of Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian groups allied in the fight against ISIS. They have surrounded al-Raqqah and are slowly reducing the ISIS presence there.

In these old and narrow streets, it is difficult for the SDF to advance quickly. The fighters have to move not only street by street, but house by house, some of the fighters describing it as even room by room, as the entrenched ISIS fighters put up a tough fight.

Most of the remaining ISIS fighters - some estimates place the number at less than 1000 - believe they have no option but to make the SDF pay a high price for the city. Although some ISIS fighters have been captured, they seldom surrender, preferring to become martyrs for their cause.

The fighting is complicated also by the difficulty of using coalition airpower in the city. The coalition is conducting "danger close" airstrikes when requested by SDF commanders, but it inevitably leads to increased civilian casualties.

As with the other areas "liberated" from ISIS, such as the Iraqi city of Mosul, there is, and will be more, tremendous damage to the city infrastructure and facilities. Unfortunately, that is the price of evicting ISIS - the group has had over four years to prepare to defend the city.

The ISIS fighters have no where to go - I suspect that most of the remaining fighters, as happened in Mosul, will die fighting ferociously, taking as many SDF troops as possible. They continue to use suicide vehicle improvised explosive devices and human shields to cause a high number of casualties.

The battle for al-Raqqah has been foretold for some time - both sides knew this was coming. As the tide of the war turned against ISIS, both sides realized what the outcome of the battle would likely be - the real question is the cost in blood and treasure.

ISIS knew that making a final stand in al-Raqqah would not give them the time they needed to reconfigure the group into a different organization, one without territory, more akin to other Islamist groups, such as its predecessor al-Qa'idah.

Before the SDF completely surrounded the city, ISIS moved many of its leaders and fighters to the southeast further down the Euphrates Valley into Dayr al-Zawr governorate (called al-Khayr by ISIS). The city of Dayr al-Zawr and the adjacent air/military base are still in the hands of the Syrian government, but are completely surrounded and besieged by ISIS.


Dayr al-Zawr

Airdrops by the Syrian Arab Air Force, Russian Air Force, Iranian Air Force, and yes - although the United Nations claims it is not taking sides - the World Food Programme - sustain the Dayr al-Zawr enclave.

The Syrian Army is pushing from Palmyra and along the Euphrates south of al-Raqqah and adjacent to the SDF units towards Dayr al-Zawr - and making good progress. They have isolated several ISIS pockets and will destroy them - I do not think the Syrian Army will attempt negotiations with ISIS as they have with Syrian rebel groups. In many cases, the Syrian government allows rebel fighters to relocate to rebel-held areas, usually in Idlib governorate, in return for surrendering their besieged positions.

These moves toward Dayr al-Zawr by the Syrian Army, combined with the SDF assault on al-Raqqah and ISIS's attempts at relocation to the southeast, are setting up what will be ISIS's last stand in Syria, maybe even in both Syria and Iraq, depending on how aggressively the Iraqi forces clear the remaining ISIS-controlled areas on their side of the border.

It appears that the final battle will take place somewhere in the Euphrates Valley (I believe it will be somewhere in the blue circle on the map below) - ISIS media is already calling it mu'arakat al-furat (the battle of the Euphrates).


The coming "battle of the Euphrates"

I believe we know how the final battle ends, however, we don't know exactly when or where. Although the SDF is in control of about 60 percent of the city of al-Raqqah, ISIS continues to offer stiff resistance and to mount deadly counterattacks with SVIEDs - the battle of the Euphrates is not imminent. It will take some time for the SDF to complete the liberation of al-Raqqah - one need only to look at the final push for Mosul to see the difficulties ahead.

It will also take time for the Syrian Army to consolidate its gains northeast of Palmyra and continue its push to the east. The Syrians have allocated its best troops to the effort, bolstered by Iranian forces and Russian airpower.

Although the battle of the Euphrates is not imminent, it will happen. Then the fight will shift to battle what ISIS becomes next. Barcelona might be a hint.





August 16, 2017

Iranian Air Force operations in Syria's Idlib governorate



Translation of the caption on the video: "Watch as packages of food and medical supplies are dropped to the besieged towns of Kafarya and Fu'ah, located north of Idlib."

For almost two years, aircraft of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated airline YAS Air have been supporting residents of the towns of Kafarya and Fu'ah, located just four miles north of the city of Idlib with airdrops of food and supplies. I daresay some of the packages have included weapons and ammunition.

The two towns, loyal to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Asad, are surrounded and besieged by units of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other rebel groups.



The two cities have another important distinction - they are two of the few Shi'a towns in this part of Syria. It is not only the fact that Iranian forces are allied with the Syrian government, but that Iran regards itself as the leader and guardian or all people and places Shi'a.

The Iranian leadership has made it a priority to ensure that the towns are not starved into submission by the surrounding rebel forces.



To that end, the IRIAF and IRGC have deployed aircraft to Damascus International Airport to conduct the airdrops. The aircraft are normally parked on an apron (red circle) located southeast of the main commercial passenger ramp.


In the above photo, there are two IRIAF C-130 and two YAS Air AN-72 (NATO: COALER) cargo aircraft. YAS Air is affiliated with the IRGC Qods Force and is under sanction by the U.S. Treasury Department for its role in supporting the IRGC, Lebanese Hizballah, and the Syrian regime.


In a rare capture, this transponder track shows a YAS Air (formerly registered to the IRIAF) AN-72 aircraft returning to Damascus after dropping supplies to the besieged towns.

These Iranian C-130 and AN-72 aircraft have also been seen dropping supplies into the ISIS-besieged city of Dayr al-Zawr in eastern Syria, although Russian and Syrian IL-76 (NATO: CANDID) are normally used for this mission.



August 15, 2017

North Korean M1978 Koksan Gun - the Iranian angle

Captured Koksan gun at the al-Suwayrah artillery depot, Iraq - 1988 (my photo)

The world's attention remains focused on North Korea and its continuing research and development of a deliverable nuclear weapon, specifically a nuclear warhead for its newly-tested Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). At last check, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has decided against "testing" four of his Hwasong-12 intermediate range ballistic missiles by launching them over 2000 miles into international waters a mere 20 miles from the U.S. territory of Guam.

Any confrontation between the United States and North Korea will undoubtedly ignite a war on the Korean peninsula and possibly the entire region, including Japan. A key part of North Korea's strategy is a massive artillery and rocket attack on the South Korean capital city of Seoul. The metropolitan area of the city is home to over 10 million people - the number of casualties would be astronomical.

The distance from the Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ) to Seoul is about 35 miles, normally considered beyond the range of conventional artillery. To ensure the capability to reach Seoul, the North Koreans developed what has become known in the West as the Koksan gun, more formally the M1978 Koksan 170mm self-propelled field gun. With a rocket-assisted projectile, the gun can fire an artillery round over 36 miles, or just enough to fire from the DMZ into the South Korean capital.


Koksan gun in Iranian service on the al-Faw peninsula

In 1987, seeking to generate much-needed revenue, the North Koreans sold a number of Koksan guns to Iran. Iran had been at war with Iraq for almost seven years. Although the Iraqis had initially seized Iranian territory, they were unable to hold it - every year the Iranians pushed the Iraqis further back, until taking the al-Faw peninsula from the Iraqis.

Artillery fires from al-Faw to Kuwait

The acquisition of this piece of Iraqi territory allowed Iran to use the newly-received Koksan guns to fire from the peninsula into Kuwait's northeastern oilfields. Iran shelled the Kuwaiti oilfields - as well as firing Chinese-made SILKWORM missiles into Kuwait's ports - as punishment for Kuwait's support of Iraq in the war. Kuwaiti and Saudi oil exports kept prices low, hurting Iran's war effort as Tehran struggled to pay for imported weaponry (like the SILKWORM missiles and North Korean artillery).

At this time, I was assigned to the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at the Pentagon. My office was charged with overseeing defense intelligence operations and analysis for the Middle East, including the developing relationship between DIA and the Iraqi Directorate of Military Intelligence. We were aware of the Iranians firing missiles into Kuwaiti ports, hoping to intimidate the Kuwaitis from shipping larger amounts of oil.

In early 1988, we received reports from our Kuwaiti colleagues about unexplained artillery shelling of their northeastern oilfields. It was puzzling because we did not believe the Iranians were in possession of artillery systems capable of reaching the Kuwaiti oilfields. The Kuwaitis provided us with one of the shells which did not explode - we measured it at 170mm. At that time, we were unaware of anyone manufacturing a 170mm artillery piece - standard calibers at that time were 122mm, 130mm. 152mm, 155mm, 175mm and 203mm.

At about this same time, President Reagan, reacting to an intelligence community assessment that Iran was likely to win the war against Iraq within the year, directed the Secretary of Defense to provide intelligence information to Iraq to prevent an Iranian victory. The President deemed it unacceptable for Iran to control both Iranian and Iraqi oil production, and to be in a position to intimidate Kuwait and Saudi Arabia into lowering production and thereby raising the price of oil.

I was dispatched to Baghdad to handle the flow of information to the Iraqi DMI. Using our information, the Iraqis were able to regain control of the al-Faw peninsula in April 1988. Shortly afterwords, the Iraqis notified us that they had captured an unusual artillery piece on the peninsula and asked our assistance in identifying it.

Our defense attache in Baghdad, an artillery officer, traveled to the recaptured peninsula to see the gun. He recognized the gun from grainy photos the intelligence community had taken from television coverage of a North Korean military parade. The Iraqis had captured what we had never been able to put eyes on, let alone touch - a Koksan gun.

The first thing the attache did was measure the bore - 170mm. That explained the mysterious shelling of Kuwait's oilfields. It also told us that North Korea was actively supporting Iran in the war, which did not please the Iraqis. We at DIA explained to the Iraqis the importance of the gun to American forces and asked for the gun. I was directed to find a way to get the gun back to the United States for intelligence exploitation. Although the Iraqis initially agreed, they later decided to keep the gun but allowed us unlimited access to it.

I escorted a team of U.S. Army engineers and artillery officers to Iraq for as much exploitation as we could do in the field. The Iraqis moved the gun to the al-Suwayrah artillery depot about an hour south of Baghdad - we had five days to do everything but take it apart, later providing a detailed intelligence report for U.S. and allied forces' use.

As a side note - I found numerous used atropine injectors in the Koksan's driver's compartment, and what we later determined to be decontamination fluid in the vehicle's headlights. When I asked the Iraqis about these indications of chemical warfare usage, they deflected by claiming that Iraqi use of smoke confused the Iranians into thinking they were under chemical attack. It was a lie - I knew it and they knew it.

Exploitation of a Koksan gun in the Iraqi desert in 1988 was key to an accurate assessment of the ability of North Korean artillery to reach Seoul, South Korea.