The Burial of Saddam Husayn

(This is the final version)

Following his execution on December 30, the remains of Saddam Husayn were turned over to the shaykh of the Albu Nasir tribe. The shaykh was moved by American military aircraft from Tikrit to Baghdad where he took custody of the body for return to Saddam's family burial plot in 'Awja, the village of his birth located about eight miles east of the city of Tikrit.

A funeral service was be held at the burial site on the morning of December 31. Following that, Saddam will be laid to rest about two miles from the graves of his two sons, 'Uday and Qusay, killed by U.S. forces in a gun battle in Mosul in July 2003. The location of the sons' graves are well-known, but are not marked. To ensure that no memorials are erected by supporters, or that the bodies are not desecrated by others, the area is patrolled regularly by American troops.

The movement of Saddam's remains to 'Awja are in direct contradiction of the wishes of Saddam's eldest daughter, Raghda (age 39). She wanted the remains moved to Yemen for temporary burial until Iraq is "liberated." After she realized that was not going to be permitted, the family, acting in accordance with Saddam's last will and testament, asked that he be buried in Ar-Ramadi, a town known for its high level of insurgent activity. According to the family, Saddam had indicated that he wanted to be buried in 'Awja or Ar-Ramadi.

Why was Saddam's tribal shaykh moved by the U.S. military, why was Saddam afforded a funeral, and why were his daughter's wishes ignored?

I suspect that prior to the signing of the execution warrant (see photo), a deal was struck between Prime Minister Al-Maliki and senior Sunni political leaders (possibly Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, regarded as a moderate) that a funeral would be permitted and the remains would be transported to 'Awja for burial. This is unlike the treatment afforded the remains of Al-Qa'idah in Iraq leader Abu Mus'ab Az-Zarqawi who is buried in an unmarked grave in an undisclosed location.

A deal such as this might have been an attempt to assuage the anger and humiliation of Sunni politicians, many of whom regard the entire trial, sentencing and appeal process as rigged by the Americans and rushed to execution by the Shi'a-dominated government.

On a trivia note, the flag used to cover the coffin is the Saddam era flag. The green script between the three stars are the Arabic words allahu akbar (God is great). The two words were added by Saddam following his invasion of Kuwait in 1990 after he realized that he was facing a multinational military force intent on removing his forces from Kuwait. The addition of the Islamic phrase was an attempt to wrap his regime and actions in the mantle of Islam. On the original "Saddam flag," the words appear in script said to be Saddam's handwriting. The current Iraqi flag retains the phrase, but in a different font.

After Saddam’s execution, outlook for Iraq grim

This analysis appears on MSNBC.com, and is an update of an earlier piece I wrote (The coming month in Iraq).


After Saddam’s execution, outlook for Iraq grim
If Bush sends additional troops, their mission must be clearly spelled out


ANALYSIS
By Lt. Col. Rick Francona
Military analyst
MSNBC
Updated: 10:10 p.m. ET Dec 29, 2006

(Read the article on the MSNBC.com site)

A personal note on the execution of Saddam Husayn

I wrote this piece for the MSNBC Hardball "Hardblogger." It was teased on the NBC Nightly News blog:

It's not usual for us to send readers to other blogs -- sisterly or not -- on such a regular basis, but this is a fantastic read from Lt. Col. Rick Francona, a regular Hardblogger contributor and former CIA operative. In this piece, Francona writes about his covert work in 1996 to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Three sons of an Iraqi general Francona was working with were captured and killed, so the execution of Hussein has very personal meaning for him.

(link to article)

Saddam Hussein’s rule affected virtually everyone in Iraq. Everyone has a story.

Here’s mine:

In 1995 and 1996, I was involved in the CIA’s covert operations to overthrow Saddam Hussein, operating from several Middle East countries bordering Iraq, as well as inside the Kurdish-controlled area of Iraq itself. One of these operations was to support of the Iraq National Accord (INA) under Dr. Iyad Alawi. One of Alawi’s key colleagues was a retired Iraqi military officer, General Muhammad Abdullah Al-Shahwani. Al-Shawani had relocated outside Iraq, but his three sons were serving in the Iraqi Army Republican Guard.

General Al-Shahwani was in contact with his sons and others in the Iraqi military; together they planned a coup to overthrow Saddam Hussein. By mid-1996, we believed that a coup had a chance of success. We began the infiltration of Iraqi agents we had recruited and trained to support the coup attempt.

Unfortunately, one of the agents was detected inside Iraq. Under severe interrogation, he revealed what information he knew and the whole operation was compromised. Iraqi security officials arrested virtually everyone involved in the coup attempt; most were executed.

As part of the team working directly with Al-Shahwani, I spent a lot of time at his home. I was with the general and his wife when word came that their three sons had been arrested. I was with them when one of their sons was allowed to make a phone call to his mother just prior to his execution.

I told Mrs. Al-Shahwani that someday Saddam would pay for his crimes. Finally, that day is here.

The coming month in Iraq

The caption that accompanies the AP photo to the left reads, "Iraqi children pass by a vandalized mural of the former Iraqi dictator Saddam Husayn in Tikrit."

The word "vandalized" would indicate that the graffiti would be negative. However, the spray-painted Arabic actually reads, "Long live Saddam and the Ba'th (party)."

The graffiti underscores the divisions in the country - the upcoming execution of Saddam Husayn will only exacerbate the sectarian and ethnic violence taking place mostly in Baghdad. It also has the potential to unleash a wave of Sunni violence in the Sunni Triangle, in those cities now well known as hotbeds of insurgency - Ba'qubah, Ar-Ramadi, Al-Fallujah, Samarra', Tikrit, etc.

As Saddam faces execution - his death by hanging is mandated to take place within 30 days of the denial of his appeal, or no later than January 25, 2007 - many analysts (this one included) are concerned about the convergence of events that will occur next month.

In addition to the upcoming execution of Saddam Husayn, there is the ongoing deployment of the 82nd Airborne Division's 2nd Brigade from Fort Bragg to Kuwait to become the theater reserve for U.S. forces in Iraq. The previous theater reserve, the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, was deployed to the Al-Anbar province in November. The 2nd Brigade is the 82nd's "ready brigade," the brigade currently on standby duty for rapid deployment as needed. The initial battalion should be in place in 24 hours from deployment order. The fact that the ready brigade is being deployed indicates just how stretched the Army and Marines have become.

The deployment of the 2nd Brigade, totally about 3,500 troops, is probably the first of the expected increase in the number of U.S. forces in Iraq. In January, President Bush will unveil his plan for the "change of course" in Iraq. I believe that the decision has already been made that there will be an increase the number of troops, although the exact numbers may not be as high as five brigades (about 20,000 troops). It is interesting that the same generals who in the past claimed they did not need more troops, now do. I say that because the situation - the sectarian violence or civil war, depending on your perspective - has not significantly changed since the February 2006 bombing of the Al-Askari/'Abd Al-Hadi mosque in Samarra' that caused the escalation.

If there is going to be an increase in the number of troops, it is important that the President spell out exactly what their mission will be. Will they be dispatched to Al-Anbar or the Sunni Triangle to quell the Sunni insurgency (Ba'this and Al-Qaidah in Iraq, among others), or will they be sent to neutralize the Shi'a militia (especially the jaysh al-mahdi of Muqtada Al-Sadr), or will they provide a security cordon around Baghdad in support of Iraqi security forces who will try to stop the sectarian violence in the city, or perhaps they will be used to bolster Iraqi forces attempting to seal the porous borders with Iran and Syria, the infiltration routes for explosives and fighters?

Dispatching additional troops to the Sunni areas does not appear to be necessary. American special operations forces are having great success against the insurgents in Al-Anbar province, as are regular Iraqi and American forces throughout the Sunni areas. Every day, these units conduct "cordon and search" operations against suspected insurgents, terrorists, and general lawbreakers - and are usually successful in apprehending either the primary or secondary targets. Suspects are usually turned over to the Iraqi police, however the vagaries of the Iraqi justice system results in many detainees being released by Iraqi judges for unknown reasons, although it is suspected that ethnicity and religious affiliation come into play. This is aggravating when American troops are killed or wounded in action daily in these operations.

Recent assessments by senior U.S. officers indicate that the civil war between the Sunni and Shi'a is the major problem, and that problem is centered in Baghdad. Baghdad is the key - if the security situation in Baghdad cannot be resolved, progress in the remainder of the country is moot. Ultimately, this needs to be an Iraqi solution to an Iraqi problem, but that cannot happen until the security situation is addressed.

The Iraqi government, and by this I mean Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, has to eliminate the Shi'a militias, especially Al-Sadr's. This will be difficult because of the close - perhaps too close - relationship between Al-Maliki and Al-Sadr. If Al-Maliki is unwilling to, or incapable of, ordering his forces to disband Al-Sadr's militia - and possibly arrest Al-Sadr for complicity in the 2003 murder of Imam 'Abd Al-Majid Al-Khu'i - then the Iraqis need to seriously consider a change of leadership.

January will certainly be an interesting month.

Israeli Intelligence Agencies - Two Views of Syria

Israel, like most countries, has more than one foreign intelligence service - the United States has five "pure" intelligence agencies as well as 10 services that are parts of larger organizations. In Israel, there is Aman (military intelligence) and Mossad (the civilian service, the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations). Aman would equate to a combination of the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, plus elements of the nascent Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Mossad is more closely analogous to the Central Intelligence Agency Directorate of Operations.

Given the makeup of the Israeli intelligence community, the senior service, unlike most Western countries, is the military intelligence service, as opposed to the civilian intelligence service. It is Aman's Research Department that is responsible for preparing Israel's national intelligence assessments (similar to a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate).

Aman Signals Intelligence Site
Har Avital, Golan Heights
In recent weeks, the two Israeli services have produced conflicting assessments of current events in Syria. The chief of the Aman Research Department, the senior analytical officer in the intelligence community, assessed that Syria's Bashar Al-Asad was serious about resuming negotiations with Israel. Of course, the price for any agreement with Israeli will include the return of the occupied Golan Heights, seized by Israeli forces in 1967 and administratively annexed by Israel in 1981.

Although most Israeli politicians realize that if they ever want peace with Syria, they are going to have to return the land to Syria. Popular opinion in Israel, however, is overwhelmingly in favor of not returning the territory. I recently traveled through the Golan - Israel has built so much infrastructure that it will be difficult to return the area.

At the same time Aman's report was being briefed to the Knesset, the director of Mossad said almost the exact opposite - despite Al-Asad's public statements, the Syrian leader was not serious about returning to the negotiating table. Mossad's director believes the statements are merely for public consumption to deflect increasing world attention to Syrian designs on Lebanon and its close ties with Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that renewed talks with Syria would first require that Damascus stop allowing Iran to rearm and resupply Hizballah via Syrian territory, and stop support for Hamas, whose political leadership is headquartered in Damascus.

So, who does Olmert listen to?

Iran and Declining Oil Revenues

Despite some misconceptions in today's news reports, Iran is not running out of oil - they have between 131 and 138 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, depending on what source you use. However, their revenues from oil exports are in decline, by as much as 10 percent per year.

There are several reasons for this decline, mostly of the government's own making. Over the last few years, they have been pouring immense amounts of money into weapons programs, both conventional and nuclear. These programs include longer range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, high-speed torpedoes, naval combatants, etc., in addition to the now famous nuclear weapons program. All these research and development programs are expensive. Money needed for improvements in the oil sector are being diverted to these programs. Iran responds that U.S. sanctions that punish companies that deal with Iran hurt their ability to spend money on the oil sector.

Other factors impacting Iran's oils exports are domestic demand and lack of refining capability. Domestic demand is skyrocketing, cutting into the amount of oil that can be exported. Iran does not refine enough gasoline and diesel to satisfy domestic requirements - about 40 percent of it must be imported.

Sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1737 may not be strong, but if Iran does not comply by suspending uranium enrichment, more stringent sanctions are likely to follow. This will only exacerbate the declining oil revenue situation.

Many analysts believe that the declining revenues, sanctions, internal political unrest and rampant poverty in a country with the second largest oil reserves in the world will bring about internal regime change if left alone. The problem is the time line. It may take five years for these issues to come to a head. Iran may have a deliverable nuclear weapon in less that three years. Is the world willing to wait?

Saddam Husayn - The End is Near

Saddam Husayn has exhausted the appeals of his death sentence. An Iraqi appeals court upheld the death sentences for Saddam, former head of the dreaded Iraqi Intelligence Service (al-mukhabarat) Barzan Al-Tikriti (Saddam's half brother) and former revolutionary court judge 'Awad Ahmad Al-Bandar.

According to Iraqi law, the judicial process for this case is complete. The three, along with three other defendants, were found guilty of crimes against humanity. The specific crimes were the deaths of almost 150 Shi'a Iraqis in the village of Al-Dujayl after a 1982 assassination attempt against Saddam. Since crimes against humanity are international crimes, the verdict is not subject to presidential pardon.

Iraqi law is very specific on carrying out the sentence. The three must be executed by hanging within 30 days, after the sentence is ratified by the Iraqi president, Jalal Talabani. Talabani is personally opposed to the death penalty, so will have one of the vice-presidents ratify the sentence. The sentence is to be carried out regardless of other ongoing judicial proceedings - the current trial for crimes against the Kurds in the Anfal campaign should not interfere with the executions. Iraqi officials have stated in the past that they want to continue the series of trials against Saddam in order to make sure all of his misdeeds are made public.

Saddam has asked that he be executed by firing squad, but Iraqi law again is specific - executions are by hanging. Although there were calls for it to be done in public, security concerns will likely force it to be a private procedure on an American compound. No doubt the execution will further inflame the Sunnis and may lead to increased violence directed at American and Iraqi forces, as well as the general Shi'a population. That said, it needs to be done.

Several human rights, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have criticized the judicial process of the trial, as well as the death sentence. Where were they when Saddam was killing 400,000 Iraqis?

Iran - still part of the problem

One of the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group (See my Iraq Study Group - Iran and Syria part of the problem) is to engage both Iran and Syria to develop a new strategy for Iraq. It is no secret that I have always viewed Iran and Syria as part of the problem, not part of the solution.

The New York Times reported today that at least six Iranians have been detained in Iraq as the result of raids by American forces (read story). Two of those initially detained turned out to be Iranian diplomats in Baghdad at the invitation of Iraqi president Jalal Talabani. Talabani, a Kurd, has longstanding ties to Tehran. The two diplomats were released, but at least four other Iranians, described by American authorities as senior military officers, remain in U.S. custody. Iraqi and Iranian officials are pressing the Americans to release the four.

Talabani was understandably unhappy with the detention of the two diplomats, but that issue seems to have been resolved. Other Iraqi officials are upset because at least one of the raids occurred on the compound of 'Abd Al-'Aziz Al-Hakim, leader of the Shi'a Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and its associated militia, the Badr Corps. Al-Hakim was recently in the United States for a meeting with President Bush.

The raids highlight several issues. First, there is the issue of Iranian involvement. While relations between Iran and Iraq are inevitable - they share a long border and a history of conflict. They also share majority Shi'a populations. With a majority Shi'a government in Baghdad, those relations will naturally improve, but the United States must ensure that the relationship does not jeopardize American interests in the region.

Secondly, the government of Nuri Al-Maliki must address the issue of the Shi'a militias, both the jaysh al-mahdi (the Mahdi Army) of Muqtada Al-Sadr and SCIRI Badr Corps. If he is unwilling or incapable of doing this, he has to go. Thus far, he has not shown either. As long as the militias continue to operate with tacit government permission, the civil war between Shi'a and Sunni will continue unabated - with American forces often caught between the opposing sides.

Thirdly, the Iraqi government needs to get over this indignation when American forces conduct raids in Shi'a areas. Whose side are they on?

Iranian meddling in Iraqi affairs is nothing new. It was the Iranians who sparked the 1991 Shi'a rebellion in southern Iraq against the Saddam Husayn regime in the aftermath of the Gulf War. Immediately after the withdrawal of American forces from southern Iraq, Iraqi soldiers detected the infiltration of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qods Force members. It was these Iranians who convinced their fellow Shi'a to rise up against Saddam, with disastrous results.

Over the last two years, senior American leaders in Iraq have accused Iran (specifically the Qods Force) from providing arms to both the Sunni insurgents and the Shi'a militias in Iraq. They may now have gathered evidence to back up those accusations.

Iran continues to be part of the problem. It is hard to imagine them as part of the solution.

Iran and Sanctions - UNSCR 1737

On December 23, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously passed Resolution 1737, imposing sanctions on Iran for its continued refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment activities as required by UNSC Resolution 1696 (July 31, 2006). The resolution states that if Iran does not comply within 60 days, additional sanctions may be applied.

The resolution was not as strong as the United States would have liked, but to gain Russian acceptance, it agreed to less stringent sanctions. The final draft was also acceptable to Qatar, who was the lone vote against Resolution 1696 in July. Now that there is a sanctions regime, albeit weak, in place, it will be difficult for the Russians to object to stronger sanctions if Iran does not comply with the requirements of the resolution.

Not surprisingly, Iran has rejected the resolution. In their own words:

President Ahmadinejad:

"I am sorry for you who lost the opportunity for friendship with the nation of Iran. You yourself know that you cannot damage the nation of Iran an iota. You have to accept that Iran has the technology of producing nuclear fuel. This will not damage the nation of Iran, but its issuers will soon regret this superficial and nil act."

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman:

"We are not obliged and it is not expected that cooperation with the IAEA continues at the same former level."

Iranian parliament:

"The government should seriously and strongly continue the important issue of peaceful nuclear technology with prudence and foresight. It should never accept such illogical pressures. Death to America."

Iran's nuclear negotiator Larijani:

"We are now more decisive in realizing our nuclear aims. From Sunday morning, we will begin activities at Natanz — site of 3,000-centrifuge machines — and we will drive it with full speed. It will be our mmediate response to the resolution."

Iran's representative to the United Nations Zarif:

"The same Governments, which have pushed this Council to take groundless punitive measures against Iran's peaceful nuclear program, have systematically prevented it from taking any action to nudge the Israeli regime towards submitting itself to the rules governing the nuclear non-proliferation regime."

Will sanctions be effective? Iran's defiance would tend to indicate that they will not. They believe that their huge oil reserves and the world's seemingly insatiable thirst for oil will insulate them from the effects of sanctions - they may be right. If sanction prove to be ineffective, is military action inevitable? Several Israeli leaders believe that may be the only option.

See my earlier:

• Iran - "Existential Threat" to the State of Israel - ADDENDUM
• Israel Seeks More Aerial Refueling Capability
• Iran - Israel's Air Strike Options

Additionally, the chances of constructive dialog with the government in Tehran, as recommended by the Iraq Study Group, have been dealt a severe blow. No surprise - I still maintain that Iran is part of the problem, not part of the solution. See my earlier piece for MSNBC's Hardball, Iraq Study Group - Iran and Syria part of the problem.

Al-Qa'idah's "English Brothers" Operation

According to a Newsweek article in the December 25 edition, The Regathering Storm, Al-Qa'idah is training a team of westerners in Pakistan. The group is called by the nickname "the English brothers" because of the language used in training by the group of nine Britons, two Norwegians and an Australian.

Training by Al-Qa'idah in Pakistan? News? Hardly. The remnants of Al-Qa'idah and the Taliban have moved over the border from Afghanistan to Pakistan's Waziristan province, an tribally administered area over which the government in Islamabad exercises little control.

What is news is the training itself. In the past, Al-Qa'idah trained operatives who were to return to their home countries and conduct operations, including suicide operations. This training, what I call "the special forces" model, is aimed at training operatives who will return to their home countries, not primarily to conduct operations, but to recruit other members, establish cells and train them to plan and conduct operations. This is a much more efficient use of the newly-trained cadre - it leverages a few operatives into numerous operational cells.

The nine Britons are said to be of Pakistani descent, but are native-born British subjects. This allows them to operate easily in the United Kingdom - it's their home. Over two years ago, U.S. intelligence intercepted Al-Qa'idah instructions to try to recruit Westerners and native-born Muslims to operate in their home countries. Unless they have done something to come to the attention of the authorities, they are virtually undetectable. The British cannot keep tabs on the over 400,000 Britons (mostly of Pakistani origin) who travel to Pakistan each year.

American homeland security officials are concerned about the training of native Britons because travelers holding United Kingdom passports are not required to obtain advance visas to enter the United States.

According to the article, some of the information was provided by a former detainee at Guantanamo. That raises the question of the effectiveness of the screening program for release of those captured in Afghanistan.

Al-Qa'idah has been bloodied, but not eliminated.