Miniseries Review: "Fauda - Season 3" (Netflix 2020)

Finally, Season 3 of Fauda is available on Netflix. The series tells the stories of an Israel Defense Forces Mista'arvim (undercover counter-terrorism units) team as they pursue Hamas terrorists. See my review of seasons 1 and 2.

This season, the area of operations shifts to the south. Seasons 1 and 2 occurred in the Palestinian Authority area on the West Bank around Nablus (Shechem), north of Jerusalem (al-Quds). In Season 3, the action begins in the southern portion of the West Bank to the Hebron (al-Khalil) area. By episode 6, the operation moves to the Gaza Strip. I have not been to the Gaza Strip in a long time - it was pretty bad then, and if this is an accurate depiction, it appears to have gotten worse. It is a Hamas* terrorist breeding ground.

Normally, I would advise viewers to watch Seasons 1 and 2 first, but since this story is in a different venue, the terrorist targets do not seem to be related, and there are only limited references to things from the previous seasons, so you could just watch this season.

One of my concerns with many of these shows is the lack of maps. Yes, I know these are fictional stories, but when we are talking about Israel and the Palestinians, be it the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, geography – locations, distances, and terrain – become very important.

I have taken the liberty of creating a map of the operations area. I have labeled the major places - those with red dots are either locations in which there is action in the series, or is mentioned in the series. Click for a larger view.

Note: I have tried not to provide spoilers to the story line, but only make comments on things that you might find interesting as you watch.

The initial action takes place in the city of Dhahiriya ( الظاهرية‎ – the correct transliteration using the U.S government approved system would be al-Zahiryah). Dhahiriya is located in the Hebron Governorate, 14.3 miles southwest of the city of Hebron (الخليل – al-Khalil in Arabic) in the southern West Bank, with a population of almost 40,000.

The story addresses Palestinian tunnels that allow surreptitious passage from inside the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip under the border and into Israel proper, into an area the Israelis call “the Gaza Envelope.” This refers to the populated areas of Israel within seven kilometers of the Gaza Strip, in other words, areas that are in range of mortars and Qassam rockets fired by Hamas and Islamic Jihad from inside the Gaza Strip.

The tunnels have been in the news lately as the Israelis try to find and destroy them, as they pose a significant threat. These well-engineered tunnels can reach over a mile into Israel, allowing terrorists to launch attacks behind Israeli military posts. It is a real concern to Israeli security officials.

The tunnel in the story reaches just into Israel near the city of Sderot, located just opposite the northeast corner of the Gaza Strip. Sderot is also known as "rocket city" because of the huge number of al-Qassam rocket attacks fired by Hamas's military wing - the 'Izz-al-Din Qassam Brigades - or Islamic Jihad. I visited Sderot after the Israeli-Hamas conflict of 2008-2009 - read my article on Sderot.

Once the tunnel depicted in the story is utilized in the reverse direction, Sderot to Jabaliya, the operation shifts to Gaza.

Some things about the names of the characters in the story. You will hear actual first names, and you will hear people referred to as "Abu xxxx" (father of xxxx) and "Um xxxx" (mother of xxxx). These are what linguists call a teknonym, or in Arabic, a kunyah. A teknonym is the nickname of an adult derived from the name of his/her eldest child. For example, my son's name is Michael, I would be known to my friends as "Abu Mishal."

There is a variation of the kunyah used by Islamist fighters - they normally take a descriptive word, like "war" (harb) and add a last name of their origin - Abu Harb al-Tunisi would be "Father of War, the Tunisian."

So, to uncomplicate matters, here is a scorecard of the major players in Season 3.

Jihad Hamdan - Abu Bashar - recently released Hamas official, jailed for 20 years
Bashar Hamdan is a championship boxer

Nassar Hamdan - Abu Fawzi - Jihad's brother, father of Hamas fighter Fawzi Hamdan

Hani al-Jabari - Abu Muhammad - senior Hamas military commander

For my Arabic linguist colleagues:

One of the pleasures of watching this series is the ability to listen to the Arabic dialogue. Remember, when you hear English (dubbed), the characters are speaking Hebrew.

The subtitles are, overall, excellent – as you would expect. That said, I wish the interpretation was a closer to a translation of the actual Arabic text. The interpreters have taken a lot of literary license in the choice of the words. It really is a minor issue, but for someone who understands the Arabic, it can be a little disappointing.

As for the dialect, it has not changed – they are still speaking the West Bank version of Levantine, which linguistics specialists tell me is called Southern Levantine Arabic. To me, who has listened to hundreds of thousands of hours of various dialects, it differs slightly from what I am most familiar with - the Northern Levantine Arabic spoken in Syria and Lebanon.

My non-technical, non-linguistic explanation – this South Levantine dialect is spoken mainly in the Palestinian areas of Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip, as well as a small part of Jordan.

To me, it sounds like a mixture of Syrian and Egyptian, but definitely more Syrian. What is obvious it the influence of the Egyptian syntax and the use of the appended Arabic letter shin (ش) to indicate a negative, usually without the preceding negative ma or la. It leads to some humorous sounds, especially when a negative precedes shi, the colloquial word for thing or something. My favorite: "My wife does not know anything." Marti t’arufshi shi.

As the operation shifts to Gaza, we hear more Egyptian influence. The Levantine hawn (here) becomes hina, and ma’ (water) becomes maya – things like that.

Okay, that’s probably too far down in the weeds for most readers....

Overall assessment - a tight, well-told story, focused on one major case. I couldn't stop watching, so plan enough time to binge it in one sitting. Watch it here.

Good news – Fauda co-creator Avi Issacharoff announced that the cast and crew was “working right now” on developing Season 4 of the show.

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* Hamas is an acronym of the Arabic phrase حركة المقاومة الاسلامية (al-harakat al-muqawamat al-islamiyah), meaning "Islamic Resistance Movement." The Arabic word 'hamas' (حماس) means enthusiasm or impassioned, although the Hamas charter interprets it to mean strength and bravery. The US State Department designated Hamas a foreign terrorist organization in 1997.

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Movie Review: "Miss Fisher and the Crypt of Tears" (Acorn TV - 2020)

When I saw the announcement that there was going to be a movie featuring the Australian lady detective character Phryne Fisher, the lead in the very popular television series Miss Fisher's Murder Mysteries, I was looking forward to the release.

It came out on Acorn TV this week - Essie Davis is a fine actress and usually brings her characters to life - but I have to say that I was severely disappointed.

Before I get further into this review, a few words about Essie Davis. She is excellent in the Australian period piece Miss Fisher's Murder Mysteries set in 1920's Melbourne. It is a captivating series, or what I might call "mindless entertainment."

While I am going to call this movie a miss, I highly recommend Miss Davis's performance in the BBC miniseries The Last Post, about the British experience in Aden (‘Adan) in the mid-1960’s - it is directly applicable to the situation the United States finds itself in today in several areas. Read my review at Miniseries Review: "The Last Post" (Amazon Prime - 2017).

Now, to this production. Perhaps the production crew who created the three series of the Melbourne-centric of Miss Fisher's Murder Mysteries should have stuck with a proven formula - I watched all three and thoroughly enjoyed them. The character development and story lines were believable; what we have seen in this movie is not.

I will not go into detail about all of the issues with the Middle East in the production. Let's just say that whoever did the Middle East production should have known tat the deserts of Morocco - overplayed in my opinion - do not resemble those of the Negev. I've been to both - they are not even close.

Okay - bottom line

We are all essentially prisoners in our homes for the time it takes to flatten the curve of the Coronavirus. If you have the ability to ingest a large dose of what fiction authors label the "suspension of disbelief," this could be an hour and 45 minutes of entertainment.

If you are a Middle East specialist, you might want to pass.

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UPDATE: Miniseries Review: "Fauda" (Netflix 2015-2018 )

THIS IS AN UPDATE TO MY JANUARY 1, 2019 REVIEW OF THE NETFLIX MINISERIES FAUDA.


You can read the Israeli media story below - bottom line: We in the States can expect to see Season 3 in the spring, and be pleased that there will be a Season 4!

i24 News: Season 3 English premier of global TV hit 'Fauda' screens in Tel Aviv


Original article:

We just finished watching the first two seasons of the Israeli-produced mini-series Fauda. Fauda (or more properly fawda) is the Arabic word for chaos, which is used by the Israeli military special operations team as a distress call.

Here is the Wikipedia description: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fauda

We would recommend it for those interested in the chaotic (pun intended) situation in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, administered by the Palestinian Authority. The antagonists are the Israel military versus the Palestinian Islamist group HAMAS (an acronym for al-harakat al-muqawamat al-islamiyah, the Islamic Resistance Movement), in season one, and in season two, HAMAS and a nascent ISIS cell.

Most of the action takes place in and around the city of Nablus. I recognized many of the locations from trips to the West Bank - I have often used the checkpoint at Qalqiliyah shown repeatedly in the show. It is the best route from Israel proper to Nablus.

In addition to our general recommendation, we would especially recommend the series for Arabic linguists. The two languages spoken by the characters are, of course, Hebrew and Arabic. The Hebrew dialog is dubbed (quite well) into English, so when you hear English spoken, remember that it is actually in Hebrew.

The Arabic is subtitled. The subtitles are accurate, but are more interpretation than a direct translation. If you are going to try to understand the Arabic dialog, one caveat: it is West Bank accented Palestinian Arabic. It took our Syrian/Damascene-tuned ears a few episodes to adapt to the dialect.

For the Arabic linguist geeks among you, I would describe it as Levantine Arabic with the Egyptian use of the letter shin attached to the verb for the negative. It makes for some interesting sounds. For example, in one scene, a Palestinian woman is being taken away by the team, screaming “I didn’t do anything.” In the local dialect, it becomes, ma ‘amalt-shi shi. Yeah, I know, too far down in the weeds….

Anyway, watch it. Season 3 will be shown in 2020.

POSTSCRIPT: I am told by a linguistics scholar that the dialect spoken in Nablus is actually called Southern Levantine Arabic.

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The "Israeli Carry" and the new season of Fauda

Israeli actor Lior Raz portraying commando Doron Kavillio and "the Israeli carry"

As we fans of the Netflix series Fauda await the release of the third season of the excellent Israeli nail-biter drama series, I thought I would offer a few thoughts of something I noted in the production. For my review of this series, see Miniseries Review: "Fauda" (Netflix 2017- ).

I believe this new season's operations area may shift from the Nablus area of the West Bank to the Gaza Strip. I am sure it will be excellent, but am somewhat disappointed as I find the Gazan dialect more difficult than the more familiar (to me) south Levantine Arabic spoken on the West Bank.

Some years ago, while serving as an operations officer in the U.S. intelligence community, I was sent to a defensive training course that involved, among other things, an intensive personal weapons course. The first thing I learned is that I didn't know as much as I thought about handling weapons, specifically semiautomatic pistols.

That changed - the instructors, probably among the best in the world, were relentless in forcing me to acquire these critical weapons skills. I still remember being knocked to the ground by them if I did not drop to at least my knees before reloading my weapon...I digress. It all paid off later in the field.

Most of the time in the training, which ranged from concealable pistols to machine guns to anti-tank weapons, was spent with a personal sidearm - it became an extension of my arm. I was trained on the Browning Hi-Power and Beretta 92FS, and later the Glock 19 (all chambered in the 9mm round). I still have a Glock 19, but if I had to chose my favorite weapon, I'd likely go with the tried-and-true Browning. It just feels right in my hand.

For those of us who have had weapons training - and I don't mean the NRA safety course most states require to obtain a concealed carry permit/handgun license (depending on state) - we noticed the skills exhibited by some of the Israelis in the Fauda series, particularly by the leading actor Lior Raz. Raz should be good at this - he served as a commando in the elite undercover counter-terrorism unit known as Sayeret Duvdevan. I isolated on video one instance of Raz using what we refer to as "the Israeli carry." You can watch it in Season 2, Episode 3, timecode 19:20.

Before I show you the video, allow me to explain just what this means. Most U.S. government organizations' protocol is to carry a sidearm with the weapon loaded, round in the chamber, hammer (if present) back, and safety on. This is sometimes referred to as having the weapon in Condition One. If the weapon is needed, all that is required is to disengage the safety and pull the trigger. It is fast, and requires the use of only one hand. In a high-stress situation, the fewer steps you need to do to bring the weapon into action is better. Milliseconds may count.

That said, carrying a weapon in this configuration can be unnerving. The Israelis believe that it is too dangerous for most situations, and use what is called weapons Condition Three, or in the common parlance, the Israeli Carry (although they did not develop it). In this condition, the weapon has a loaded magazine, but there is no round in the chamber, and the safety is off. If the weapon is needed, you charge the weapon (rack the slide to load a round in the chamber) while removing it from the holster; the safety is not in play. It is theoretically a bit slower, and does require the use of two hands.

In my training, our primary instructor told us, "You are not a professional masters at arms, like Navy SEALs, Army Special Forces soldiers, or Rangers. Hopefully you will never need to use your weapon - it is there only for your self-defense, not part of your operating skill set." He recommended we consider the safer Israeli Carry as our normal protocol.

He went on to explain that in a high-adrenaline situation, your motor skills become impaired. As I learned later, drawing a weapon in a situation where you may have to actually use it is a high-adrenaline situation. Removing a small safety can be considered a fine motor skill and under stress, difficult. Racking a slide, however, is a gross motor skill and probably easier to accomplish. It made sense to me - I adopted the Israeli Carry, and still use it to this day.

Now, I want you to watch how a professional master at arms brings a weapon into action (some call it "into battery"). Remember, Lior Raz was an Israeli commando who did this for a living. He withdraws the weapon, charges it and fires it in almost the blink of an eye. It is hard to imagine doing this any faster. I slowed it down to 1/8 speed - it is still almost impossible to detect the racking of the slide.



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Movie Review: "Beirut" (Radar Pictures - 2018)

(Note: This movie is available on Amazon video.)

I recently made a series of talks on the Middle East during a cruise - yes, a tough job - and one of the movies available to stream in the passenger staterooms was Beirut. Bottom line: Watch it - it is two hours of tense action with a reasonable story line. As a glimpse into Beirut in 1982, it is plausible. As an "inspired by actual events" documentary of the situation at that time, not probable.

The movie opens with a really well-done scene set in 1972 at the Beirut home of the main character Mason Skiles, played by Jon Hamm of Mad Men fame. Skiles, a Sate Department diplomat, is hosting a cocktail/dinner party for a visiting congressional delegation - those of us who have served at American embassies in the Middle East will recognize the scenario. Skiles delivers an explanation of the situation in 1970's Lebanon that is brilliant, and alone worth the price of admission.

The party is interrupted by an attack by Palestinian terrorists which sets up much of the later action in the movie. I will not go into too much detail so as not to spoil the movie for those who have not yet seen it.

The remainder of the movie takes place in 1982, a few weeks prior to the Israeli invasion. Skiles, who has retired, is called back into service to negotiate the release of a CIA officer who has been kidnapped by a Palestinian group. This takes place in the context of rising tensions between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization - the drums of war are beating as Skiles tries to arrange a hostage exchange.

I enjoyed the interplay between the various factions that make up the American country team and the outsiders. The ambassador, CIA station chief, a visiting colonel from the National Security Council, and a CIA officer played (well) by Rosamund Pike, all functioned pretty much as they would in real life, with some minor exceptions in the station chief's activities, but this was Beirut in 1982. It was a wild time, as I recall. The Israeli angle is a bit overplayed, but it does make for good fiction.

I recommend the movie as good entertainment, but not necessarily an insight into the situation in Lebanon at the time.

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Miniseries Review: "Fauda" (Netflix 2015-2018 )

We just finished watching the first two seasons of the Israeli-produced mini-series Fauda. Fauda (or more properly fawda) is the Arabic word for chaos, which is used by the Israeli military special operations team as a distress call.

Here is the Wikipedia description: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fauda

We would recommend it for those interested in the chaotic (pun intended) situation in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, administered by the Palestinian Authority. The antagonists are the Israel military versus the Palestinian Islamist group HAMAS (an acronym for al-harakat al-muqawamat al-islamiyah, the Islamic Resistance Movement), in season one, and in season two, HAMAS and a nascent ISIS cell.

Most of the action takes place in and around the city of Nablus. I recognized many of the locations from trips to the West Bank - I have often used the checkpoint at Qalqiliyah shown repeatedly in the show. It is the best route from Israel proper to Nablus.

In addition to our general recommendation, we would especially recommend the series for Arabic linguists. The two languages spoken by the characters are, of course, Hebrew and Arabic. The Hebrew dialog is dubbed (quite well) into English, so when you hear English spoken, remember that it is actually in Hebrew.

The Arabic is subtitled. The subtitles are accurate, but are more interpretation than a direct translation. If you are going to try to understand the Arabic dialog, one caveat: it is West Bank accented Palestinian Arabic. It took our Syrian/Damascene-tuned ears a few episodes to adapt to the dialect.

For the Arabic linguist geeks among you, I would describe it as Levantine Arabic with the Egyptian use of the letter shin attached to the verb for the negative. It makes for some interesting sounds. For example, in one scene, a Palestinian woman is being taken away by the team, screaming “I didn’t do anything.” In the local dialect, it becomes, ma ‘amalt-shi shi. Yeah, I know, too far down in the weeds….

Anyway, watch it. Season 3 will be shown in 2020.

POSTSCRIPT: I am told by a linguistics scholar that the dialect spoken in Nablus is actually called Southern Levantine Arabic.

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Arabic no longer an official language of the State of Israel - so?

Israeli currency with both Hebrew and Arabic text

On July 19, 2018, the Israeli Knesset adopted a new law: Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People (Hebrew: חוק יסוד: ישראל - מדינת הלאום של העם היהודי‎). It is more commonly referred to as the "nation-state bill." The law is controversial and passed only after years of failed attempts. The vote was 62 for, 55 against, with two abstentions.

The eleven-clause law defined the State of Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people, and addressed the flag, state motto, state symbol, and national anthem. It also declared that the language of the State is Hebrew.

This is a surprising change - since the founding of the State of Israel in 1948, Arabic was an official language of the country. After 70 years, two months, and five days, it now has "special status" - whatever that means.

Here is a translation (from the Hebrew) of the fourth clause of the law:

4 — Language
- a. The language of the State is Hebrew.
- b. The Arabic language has a special status in the State; regulating the use of Arabic in State institutions or by them will be set in law.
- c. This clause does not harm the status given to the Arabic language before this law came into effect.

Not being either a lawyer or a politician, it seems to me that the only actual statement in that clause above is the first one - the state's language is Hebrew. The other two sentences are "feel good" pablum in an attempt to assuage what the law's drafters must have known would be anger on the part of the Arabic speakers in the country. Note to those drafters: it didn't work.

Israel's population is approximately 8.9 million. The Israelis keep meticulous records - here is the population breakdown: Jewish 74.5 percent, Arab 20.9 percent, Druze* 1.6 percent, and other 3.0 percent. Combining the Arabs and Druze together brings the Arabic-speaking portion of the population to be 22.5 percent.

The new law has sparked outrage among the non-Hebrew speakers, as well as with many of the Jewish population who believe that the law causes unnecessary divisions in the country. Many Israeli military personnel object to it because it marginalizes the Druze, who serve in the armed forces in higher numbers than their percentage of the population and are well-respected for their capabilities.

I titled this article, "Arabic no longer an official language of the State of Israel - so?" Here is the "so."

The law in general, and the language clause in particular, sends different messages to the two groups, one to the Hebrew speakers, and one to the Arabic speakers.

To the Hebrew speakers - in reality the three quarters of the population who are Jewish: this is the Jewish state where we speak Hebrew, this is your country.

To the one quarter who do not speak Hebrew - the Arabs (Muslim and Christian), Druze, and other minorities: you can live here because your birth venue happens to be inside the national borders of the Jewish state, but it's really not your country. Feel free to leave - drive in almost any direction for an hour and you could be home.

The above tweet was posted by Avital Leibovich, a retired Israeli military intelligence officer, and a professional acquaintance. She raises a key point - if these Israeli Arabs believe they really are Israelis, why not carry the Israeli flag?

On the other hand, the Nation-State law goes one step further towards making the term "Israeli Arab" an oxymoron.

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* The Druze in Israel do not identify themselves as Arabs. In Syria and Lebanon, they identify as Arabs by ethnicity, and Druze by religion.

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A Palestinian refugee pecking order - and a bad translation....

Note: This article is more of an informative piece rather than an analytical effort. A friend sent a tweet to me and asked if I had heard the obviously distressed remarks of a Palestinian "refugee" from the Yarmuk camp just south of Damascus. She asked me if this was real. Here is the video.

The tweet was posted by journalist CJ Werleman, a respected correspondent with over 78,000 followers on Twitter. I saw the caption, the alleged translation of the video, and was curious - these are not the words I would expect from a Palestinian refugee from the Yarmuk camp.

As a student of the Levantine (Palestinian) dialect of Arabic - that spoken in Syria, Lebanon, "Palestine," and parts of Jordan - I decided to give it a listen. Although I was trained in the Egyptian dialect, I have always been posted to countries where the Levantive dialect is spoken - it took me years to divest myself of an Egyptian accent.

I digress. The term "Yarmuk Palestinian refugee camp" is somewhat of a misnomer. In my former role as the Air Attaché (photo) to the U.S. Embassy in Damascus, I spent a lot of time observing the situation in the environs of the capital, including Yarmuk. The word "camp" brings to mind images of tents and a population living in squalor.

The "Yarmuk Palestinian Refugee Camp" in Damascus is in reality just another section of the city. It consists of high-rise apartment buildings and a vibrant commercial center - hardly what one thinks of when the term "refugee camp" is used.

About refugees. There are various categories of Palestinian refugees, depending on the date a person or family departed their homes and applied to the United Nations (UN) for refugee status.

A “1948” stamp in either a national identity document, or a UN-issued Palestinian laissez passer which indicates that the bearer left the area which is now part of the State of Israel in 1948 is considered the gold standard among refugees, affording the holder the highest level of benefits.

These benefits are provided by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA). Refugees who departed areas considered Palestinian at later dates still qualify for benefits, but not at the same level.

There are 560,000 Palestinian refugees registered with UNRWA - 438,000 of these are in Syria (including 254,000 internally displaced).

Now to the video.

As I said, I was taken aback by the caption on the video. I read the posted caption: "Return me to the Jews. Even Israel is more merciful than Assad," says elderly Palestinian refugee in besieged Yarmuk.

I thought it was out of character and listened to the video. This is my translation, with the understandable caveat - his speech is difficult to understand, so I may have a few words wrong, but the meaning is easily understood.

“I am sick, I am starving, it’s the Jews – I have identification with 1948 (repeats several times), I am a refugee from 1948. I have children, I have four children and they’ve all been taken. It’s a shame, a shame.”

What the man says is entirely in keeping with reality in Syria, reality in Damascus, among the Palestinians. When I was there, I had a good friend - a Palestinian doctor - who explained the pecking order among refugees. The "1948" imprimatur is the top of the line in regards to benefits from UNRWA and hence the Syrian government. He is adamant that we know that he has a 1948 stamp on his identification documents.

That said, the issue here is the incorrect translation. Over 78,000 followers of the original poster saw the incorrect translation - it was retweeted over 275 times to who knows how many readers.

It is important that subscribers of social media be aware of the veracity of their sources. In this instance, the meaning was far from the truth.

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In Gaza, Hamas is on the ropes

(CNN) -- There is optimism, and hope, that the Egyptian-brokered three-day "humanitarian cease-fire" between the Israel Defense Forces and Hamas will turn into a longer-term cessation of hostilities -- with good reason.

Why? Militarily speaking, Hamas is on the ropes. Although the group has survived an IDF aerial, naval and ground onslaught, it has suffered a severe blow. Despite its somewhat successful attempts to portray itself and all Gaza as victims of a disproportionate Israeli military campaign, in the end it failed to prevent the IDF from achieving almost all its military goals, while achieving very little on its part.

Click on the image above to read the entire article.

Gaza - Why it's different this time

I wrote this piece for CNN.com - click on the image to read the article.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• In some ways, Gaza conflict fits pattern of earlier clashes, but this one is different
• Rick Francona says Israel seems determined to render Hamas militarily ineffective
• Hamas knows it will be much harder to re-arm due to Egypt's opposition
• Francona: Netanyahu seems fixed on idea of neutralizing Hamas' tunnels

Israel and Gaza - disproportionate force?

Israel's almost one-week long bombing operations against HAMAS targets in the Gaza Strip is reminiscent of similar conflicts in Gaza in 2009 and 2012. It follows a familiar pattern: HAMAS (or affiliated groups) launch rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israeli population centers, Israel retaliates first with an air campaign that damages the infrastructure of Gaza, followed by a short ground incursion that further damages public and private property, and then the international press excoriates Israel for its "disproportionate" response to the rocket attacks on its territory.

2014 is shaping up to be no different. The air campaign has started, and Israeli troops are positioned on the Gaza border in preparation for a possible invasion. The bombing campaign had not been ongoing for more than a few days when the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, demanded that the Israel Defense Forces and HAMAS abide by international law.

However, she only addressed Israel's action in her comments: "We have received deeply disturbing reports that many of the civilian casualties, including of children, occurred as a result of strikes on homes. Such reports raise serious doubt about whether the Israeli strikes have been in accordance with international humanitarian law and international human rights law."

Ms. Pillay did allow that the Palestinians are not without responsibility, saying that "all sides must refrain from launching attacks or putting military weapons in densely populated areas." Under international law, civilian homes are valid military targets when used for a military purpose.

Let's talk about "disproportionate" when it comes to military force. First, some comments from an Arab observer.

These are excerpts of an article that appears in Spookd, a blog written by a former colleague. Click on the logo and read the entire article to make sure I am not misrepresenting the guest author's comments. Based on the name, I am guessing that the author's family is originally from Jordan and they are of Palestinian origin.

-- Begin ---

By: Zaid G AbulGhanam

This whole conflict is a joke now.

This breakdown of organization and the lingering, lasting effects of Israel controlling Palestinian imports [oil, gas, food, water, medicine, concrete, etc.] has led to this dismantling of the Palestinian society. I feel for my fellow Arabs, and I wish there were a peaceful solution for them. However, there isn't, and, although I don't condone Hamas shooting bottle rockets into the city, I equally don't condone Israel targeting charity houses and other civilian infrastructures.

Israel has all the technology, and yet they show little remorse and empathy with the Palestinians. You can't compare the damage Israel has caused to what Hamas has done. Israel will always have more blood on their hands.

Israel is being built by Zionists for Zionists and favors them over other citizens making those citizens less equal. They are building an empire tat will empower themselves to become the future world leaders. If we stay complacent and let them continue getting away with present day genocide, then eventually we will all be next.

Stand up for the Palestinians, because if you don't, we will be next!

-- End ---

First, this conflict is not a joke. Between the dead and wounded, there are over a thousand casualties in this round of the ongoing conflict between HAMAS and the Israelis. The overwhelming number of these casualties are in the Gaza Strip. There are a host of reasons for this disparity. Some have to do with technology, some with geography and others with political decisions.

"Bottle rockets" is a grossly inaccurate term. Granted, prior to the conflict in 2012, the primary weapon for HAMAS and the Islamic Jihad was the homemade, inaccurate al-Qassam rocket with a limited range, but enough of a warhead to cause significant damage to the border cities close to Gaza. They also were in possession of some longer range Grad rockets that could reach as far as Ashkelon, Ashdod, Be'er Sheva and even the southern outskirts of Tel Aviv. (See my earlier article, Sderot, Israel - "Rocket City" opens new school).

However, since 2012 HAMAS has acquired - via Syria and Iran - an extensive arsenal of longer range rockets. This new arsenal includes the Iranian Fajr-5 (used to great effect by Hizballah in the 2006 conflict with Israel) and the Chinese-designed, Syrian-manufactured M-302 long range artillery rocket. The M-302 can deliver a 385 pound high-explosive, shrapnel-laden warhead to a range of 100 miles - that covers almost all of Israel.

No, sir, these are not bottle rockets, these are modern weapons of war.

As for comparing the damage done by Israel and that of the HAMAS rockets, and the statement that "Israel will always have more blood on its hands," this is typical of those who do not understand military conflict, or the American concept of overwhelming military force. That is the threat of the employment of so much violence that the enemy will not attack, or if it does, the infliction of an unacceptable level of death and destruction that the enemy ceases hostilities. War is not soccer - there is no requirement to "play fair."

In Gaza, the population is packed into a small area with large, built up cities. The population density is at least 10 times greater than that of Israel. Dropping even precision-guided munitions (virtually all Israeli weapons are PGMs) into these close quarters will by definition cause civilian casualties (what is sometimes called "collateral damage").

Despite this well-known fact, HAMAS has shown no reluctance to place its rocket launchers, weapons storage areas and command centers not only in civilian areas, but actually in civilian residences and what we call "culturally sensitive" buildings - mosques, hospitals, schools, etc. In the wars in Iraq (1991 and 2003-2011), the Iraqis were fully aware of the American military's prohibition on striking such targets and used them for that very reason.

It appears that HAMAS has made this same calculation. The Israelis try to limit damage to these areas and facilities, but do not operate under the strict American guidelines - just this week they struck a mosque used by HAMAS to hide rockets.

To their credit, the Israelis have dropped leaflets warning of impending airstrikes in specified neighborhoods. They also have used what is similar to a "reverse 911" calling system to warn residents to evacuate building before they are struck, as well as dropping an empty shell on a targeted building - called "roof knocking" - prior to the actual airstrike.

On the home front, the Israelis have an extensive warning system all over the country, combined with numerous bomb shelters. Most bus stops in the country are made of rebarred concrete to be used as shelters in the case of rocket/missile attacks or air raids.

Perhaps the most effective defense against HAMAS's rockets is the American-funded, Israeli-developed anti-rocket system known as Iron Dome. Although it cannot cover all of Israel at this time, it has proven very effective in the areas where it is deployed. It is credited with the fact that despite HAMAS's more lethal rockets, no Israelis have been killed thus far.

On the other hand, the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have chosen not to develop a warning system or build shelters.

Of course the damage between an established state with professional armed forces employing state of the art weaponry against a relatively untrained guerrilla force trapped in a small, congested urban environment will be disproportionate.

The solution to that disproportionate bloodshed and damage? Stop firing rockets - today. The Israelis have no interest in mounting a ground incursion into Gaza, but they will if they think there is no other way to halt the rocket attacks on Israel.

This will not end until one side blinks. It does not look like it will be the Israelis.

Israel prepares for an incursion into Gaza - but will they do it?

Israel has certainly not been subtle in signaling its preparations for a possible ground incursion - a polite word for an invasion - into the Gaza Strip to attack elements of HAMAS* who have been firing hundreds of rockets into Israeli cities. Up to 40,000 reservists have been alerted and front-line units (including the elite Golani Brigade) have been deployed to the border with Gaza.

If the order is given to mount an invasion, the Israel Defense Forces are extremely capable, well-trained, well-equipped and well-led. They will of course be opposed by a determined - sometimes bordering on fanatical - experienced guerrilla force. There will be casualties on both sides, but we should not be under any illusion as to who will suffer the most casualties. Not only will there be loss of life on both sides, the Israeli incursion will severely damage the Gazan infrastructure. There will be no equivalency of the levels of damage on the two sides. It has always been that way - the Israeli troops will inflict massive damage in a short amount of time.

The incursion will likely follow the usual Israeli tactics. Note the tracked vehicle that resembles a tank without a turret in the foreground of the above photograph. That is an armored engineering vehicle based on Israel's former Chieftain tanks. These vehicles normally are the first to cross into hostile territory - their mission is to create a safe passage for the following armor and infantry forces. The combat engineers remove obstacles, disarm booby traps and IEDs, remove minefields, etc. It is a difficult, dangerous job. All of this will be covered by Israeli Air Force fighter bombers and very accurate artillery. Even the Israeli Navy will play a role, conducting naval fire support and possibly commando operations from the Gazan littoral.

If history is any guide, the Israelis will launch a multi-axis assault. In addition to the air and naval attacks, the Israeli Army will attack from the north and the east, pushing into Gaza to cut the Strip in two, isolating the Gaza City area in the north from the Khan Yunis area to the south. Then they will begin moving through the two sectors, eliminating as many HAMAS rockets, launchers, fighters and facilities that they can. Unfortunately, many HAMAS facilities will be co-located with sensitive civilian venues - mosques, schools, hospitals, housing areas, etc.

That said, what will be the objective of an Israeli incursion? Of course, the stated objective is to stop HAMAS from firing rockets at Israeli cities. That is nothing new - we saw this in 2009 and again in 2012. However, 2014 is a bit different. HAMAS has acquired a much more lethal capability: Chinese-designed, Syrian-built long-range M-302 artillery rockets that can reach almost any spot in Israel.

A few comments on the M-302. Many in the media refer to this as a missile, however it is a rocket - missiles carry an on-board guidance system; the M-302 does not. The confusion is understandable - the Arabic language offers no distinction. The rocket can deliver a 385-pound warhead to a range of 100 miles. These are the rockets HAMAS is launching at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Yes, Jerusalem, the city holy to Jews, Christians and Muslims. The M-302 is not accurate enough to launch at one of the world's most revered cities and be sure of not hitting a site that may be holy to well over half the inhabitants on the planet.

It has been interesting to watch the performance of the largely U.S.-funded Iron Dome defense system - it has proven itself to be very effective, however, it cannot cover the entire country and intercept every rocket. Unfortunately, in the Israeli optic, the only way to prevent further damage to Israel is to invade Gaza and root out the rockets, launchers and HAMAS fighters.

Will they do it?

I have seen no indication that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu is bluffing. In the wake of the murder of three Israeli teens that they have blamed on HAMAS, Netanyahu feels he has the moral authority, public support and political capital to move against HAMAS at this time.

It could happen anytime now - all it takes is the order from the Prime Minister.

_________________
* HAMAS is an acronym for حركة المقاومة الاسلامية, harakat al-muqawamah al-islamiyah, or the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Israel and Gaza - here we go again (2014 Update)

I wrote this article in late 2012. It seems that we have to go through this recurring situation every few years. Here we are in mid-2014, still addressing the same issues. What I wrote then is still true today - the rockets still threaten large parts of Israel.

By way of updated figures, according to the Israel Defense Forces, there were 2,248 rockets fired into Israel in 2012, only 41 in 2013, and thus far in 2014, well over 500. The 2014 numbers grow by the hour and may surpass the 2012 total as both sides gear up for a major confrontation.

The catalyst for this round? The murders of three Israeli teens and a Palestinian teen in what appears to be a revenge killing. Palestinian rocket attacks trigger Israeli airstrikes, and the cycle of violence continues. Israel has called up a number of reservists in preparation for a possible ground incursion into Gaza.

Not much has changed.

Please take a few minutes to re-familiarize yourself with what I wrote 20 months ago. It remains frustratingly current.

HAMAS fires rockets into Israel

Israel has few options in its dealings with HAMAS* and the Gaza Strip. The recent increase in violence has forced the Israelis to order air strikes against targets in the territory and prepare for a ground incursion reminiscent of the operation four years ago.

The number of rockets fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip is quite astounding. To recap, since the end of the fighting in January 2009, there have been more rockets fired each year than the previous year. In 2009, there were 300 fired, in 2010 there were 510 fired, in 2011 there were 615 fired, and thus far in 2012, there have been at least 900 fired. Over 400 of those 900 have been fired in the last week. Over 150 were fired on November 16 alone.

It's not just the quantity of rockets, it's the quality. In the fighting in late 2008 and early 2009, the only rockets in the HAMAS inventory were the home-made, not very effective Qassam rockets with range capabilities between three and 12 miles. The short range of the rockets placed the Israeli border cities in jeopardy, especially the city of Sderot. See my article written in January 2009 after I visited Sderot during the fighting, Sderot - Israel's "Rocket City".

Since 2009, HAMAS has significantly upgraded its rocket arsenal, acquiring longer range systems from Iran, smuggled in via the Sinai peninsula under the "watchful eyes" of our erstwhile allies, the Egyptians. This includes Iranian Fajr-5 rockets that were used by Hizballah against northern Israel in 2006. The Fajr-5 has a range of almost 45 miles, placing Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in range.

This week, HAMAS crossed an Israeli red line - it fired rockets at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Another attack killed three Israelis in the southern city of Qiryat Malachi. It was too much for the Israelis to absorb. It also reinforces the perception among Israelis who live in the southern part of the country that until the people in more upscale Tel Aviv or Jerusalem are threatened, the government ignores the plight of the average Israeli.

The Israelis began a series of air strikes in Gaza. The Israelis have been continuously collecting intelligence on the Gaza Strip - they have a huge catalog of targets to be struck. The initial targets, of course, are the longer range rocket systems, particularly the Fajr-5 launchers. HAMAS is a capable enemy - they are hiding the launchers in mosques, schools and other areas that the Israelis are reluctant to strike. World public opinion is never on the side of the Israelis, so they have to hold themselves to a much higher standard than the Palestinians.

Since many of the launchers may be in areas that cannot be attacked from the air without unacceptable civilian casualties, a ground incursion may be necessary. The Israeli cabinet authorized a call-up of up to 30,000 reservists. Of that, 16,000 have been mobilized. That will free up active duty units to move towards Gaza. The minister of defense is seeking authority to call up as many as 75,000 reservists.

The units that have deployed to the border are among the best in the IDF - the Givati Brigade, the Paratrooper Brigade, and the 401st Armored Brigade. The 401st is equipped with the latest Merkava-4 tank. The quality of troops moving towards Gaza and the reserve call-up indicate how serious Israel is taking the matter, and how likely it is that they will invade Gaza. Mobilizing reservists in a small country like Israel is expensive and disrupts virtually everything. These steps are not taken lightly.

Israel has rushed into service as many Iron Dome anti-missile batteries as it can. The system has been able to defeat dozens of inbound HAMAS rockets. The country is fast assuming a war posture. Likewise, in Gaza, residents are stocking up on food, fuel, water, etc., since they too know that an Israeli incursion is not only possible, but inevitable.

We seem to go through this drill every few years. The Israelis endure as many attacks as they are willing to tolerate, then conduct a punitive operation against Islamist elements in Gaza. Predictably, there will be a huge public outcry of the disproportionate nature of the response, the United Nations will call for a cessation of the violence (that's code for demanding Israel stop, but not so much the Palestinians), and Israel will stop short of destroying HAMAS's ability to fire more rockets.

Here we go again.

__________
* HAMAS, (حماس) Arabic for enthusiasm, is an acronym of the Arabic titleحركة المقاومة الاسلامية harakat al-muqawamat al-Islamiyah, the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Israel-Hamas ceasefire - too soon to have lasting effects

Gaza (Hamas) Prime Minister Isma'il Haniyah celebrates ceasefire in Gaza
(Photo: Reuters)

The loud and boisterous celebrations in Gaza area hailing not a ceasefire with Israel, but a victory over Israel. It does not matter that the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip endured eight days of devastating air strikes, it does not matter that 161 Palestinians, including 71 civilians, died while their "forces," a terrorist organization funded and equipped by Iran, were only able to kill six Israelis (two soldiers and four civilians) - in their minds, they won.

Look at the photos of the revelry in the streets of Gaza. This is not merely a perception of "victory" crafted by the Hamas public relations effort - the Gazans honestly believe that they have humbled the Jewish state.

In a way, they have.

As I wrote last week when this latest round between Hamas and Israel began (read the entire article at Israel and Gaza - here we go again:

"We seem to go through this drill every few years. The Israelis endure as many attacks as they are willing to tolerate, then conduct a punitive operation against Islamist elements in Gaza. Predictably, there will be a huge public outcry of the disproportionate nature of the response, the United Nations will call for a cessation of the violence (that's code for demanding Israel stop, but not so much the Palestinians), and Israel will stop short of destroying HAMAS's ability to fire more rockets. Here we go again."

And here we are again - Israel again has stopped short of destroying Hamas's ability to fire more rockets. Actually, it is even worse this time - they have emboldened the Palestinian militants. Whether it is true or not, the fighters of the military wing of Hamas - the 'Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigade - believe that their rockets deterred the Israelis from launching a ground incursion into Gaza to locate and destroy the groups weapons and kill as many of the group that they could.

Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and the author in Jerusalem

I wonder why the Israelis, specifically Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak chose not to invade. The air assault on Gaza was beginning to show dividends, and Israel's Iron Dome anti-rocket defense system was surprisingly effective against Hamas's Iranian rockets aimed at civilian areas. Of course, world public opinion had labeled the Israelis as the aggressors, but that was nothing new - what do you expect from a basically anti-Semitic Europe and United Nations?

What other factors influenced the Israeli leadership to stop when it did? After the mobilization of thousands of reservists and deployment of the best combat units in the Israel Defense Forces to the Gaza border, after a punishing air campaign to prepare the battlefield for the impending combined arms thrust into Gaza on multiple axes, the Israelis agree to a ceasefire when the objectives of the operation have not been met. That assumes the objective was to eliminate or reduce Hamas's capabilities to fire rockets into Israel's population centers (that's Israeli domestic code for Tel Aviv and Jerusalem). I just do not believe Netanyahu's upbeat assessment that "the offensive's aims of halting Gaza rocket fire and weakening Hamas were achieved."

If you subscribe to some of the conspiracy theories being put forth, you might believe that the Israelis decided to accede to an American request to end the Gaza operation in exchange for increased support for Israel against a more lethal threat - that of a nuclear-armed Iran.

I am not sure if this is the case, but in my opinion, this is a dangerous move for the Israelis. As in the past when there have been these ceasefire deals, what always happens is the three R's - rearm, refit and recruit. The Iranians are standing by to provide the money and weapons to replace all the materiel lost in the week of fighting. The perceived "victory" by the 'Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigade will swell their ranks as young men eagerly join the ranks of the terrorist organization.

Meanwhile, the Israelis have agreed to talk about easing the blockade on the Gaza Strip, in effect making it easier for Hamas to resupply and rearm. In return, the United States (in the person of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) pledged to help curb arms shipments to Gaza. What a joke. I suppose we will put as much effort into this as we and the United Nations did to stop the resupply of Hizballah following the Israel-Hizballah conflict of 2006 (they are fully and more capably rearmed) and Hamas in 2009. Does anyone believe this?

For whatever reason that I cannot fathom, Israel has agreed to stop short of achieving any of its objectives in Gaza. Just as Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said, "Israel in the long run won't be able to live with an Iranian proxy on its border. As long as Hamas continues to incite against Israel and talk about destroying Israel they are not a neighbor that we can suffer in the long run. But everything in its time."

Everything in its time? Was there a deal between Washington and Tel Aviv over Iran? It just does not make sense. Hamas has no intention of living in peace with Israel. I said last week, "Here we go again." I suspect that in a few short years, I will be saying that yet again.

Israel and Gaza - here we go again

HAMAS fires rockets into Israel

Israel has few options in its dealings with HAMAS* and the Gaza Strip. The recent increase in violence has forced the Israelis to order air strikes against targets in the territory and prepare for a ground incursion reminiscent of the operation four years ago.

The number of rockets fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip is quite astounding. To recap, since the end of the fighting in January 2009, there have been more rockets fired each year than the previous year. In 2009, there were 300 fired, in 2010 there were 510 fired, in 2011 there were 615 fired, and thus far in 2012, there have been at least 900 fired. Over 400 of those 900 have been fired in the last week. Over 150 were fired on November 16 alone.

It's not just the quantity of rockets, it's the quality. In the fighting in late 2008 and early 2009, the only rockets in the HAMAS inventory were the home-made, not very effective Qassam rockets with range capabilities between three and 12 miles. The short range of the rockets placed the Israeli border cities in jeopardy, especially the city of Sderot. See my article written in January 2009 after I visited Sderot during the fighting, Sderot - Israel's "Rocket City".

Since 2009, HAMAS has significantly upgraded its rocket arsenal, acquiring longer range systems from Iran, smuggled in via the Sinai peninsula under the "watchful eyes" of our erstwhile allies, the Egyptians. This includes Iranian Fajr-5 rockets that were used by Hizballah against northern Israel in 2006. The Fajr-5 has a range of almost 45 miles, placing Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in range.

This week, HAMAS crossed an Israeli red line - it fired rockets at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Another attack killed three Israelis in the southern city of Qiryat Malachi. It was too much for the Israelis to absorb. It also reinforces the perception among Israelis who live in the southern part of the country that until the people in more upscale Tel Aviv or Jerusalem are threatened, the government ignores the plight of the average Israeli.

The Israelis began a series of air strikes in Gaza. The Israelis have been continuously collecting intelligence on the Gaza Strip - they have a huge catalog of targets to be struck. The initial targets, of course, are the longer range rocket systems, particularly the Fajr-5 launchers. HAMAS is a capable enemy - they are hiding the launchers in mosques, schools and other areas that the Israelis are reluctant to strike. World public opinion is never on the side of the Israelis, so they have to hold themselves to a much higher standard than the Palestinians.

Since many of the launchers may be in areas that cannot be attacked from the air without unacceptable civilian casualties, a ground incursion may be necessary. The Israeli cabinet authorized a call-up of up to 30,000 reservists. Of that, 16,000 have been mobilized. That will free up active duty units to move towards Gaza. The minister of defense is seeking authority to call up as many as 75,000 reservists.

The units that have deployed to the border are among the best in the IDF - the Givati Brigade, the Paratrooper Brigade, and the 401st Armored Brigade. The 401st is equipped with the latest Merkava-4 tank. The quality of troops moving towards Gaza and the reserve call-up indicate how serious Israel is taking the matter, and how likely it is that they will invade Gaza. Mobilizing reservists in a small country like Israel is expensive and disrupts virtually everything. These steps are not taken lightly.

Israel has rushed into service as many Iron Dome anti-missile batteries as it can. The system has been able to defeat dozens of inbound HAMAS rockets. The country is fast assuming a war posture. Likewise, in Gaza, residents are stocking up on food, fuel, water, etc., since they too know that an Israeli incursion is not only possible, but inevitable.

We seem to go through this drill every few years. The Israelis endure as many attacks as they are willing to tolerate, then conduct a punitive operation against Islamist elements in Gaza. Predictably, there will be a huge public outcry of the disproportionate nature of the response, the United Nations will call for a cessation of the violence (that's code for demanding Israel stop, but not so much the Palestinians), and Israel will stop short of destroying HAMAS's ability to fire more rockets.

Here we go again.

__________
* HAMAS, (حماس) Arabic for enthusiasm, is an acronym of the Arabic titleحركة المقاومة الاسلامية harakat al-muqawamat al-Islamiyah, the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Sderot, Israel - "Rocket City" opens new school

UPDATE: This morning, I read this headline:
Gaza rocket hits home in Sderot, causes damage to property
Qassam hits home in the the southern Israeli city, no one was wounded; rocket later lands in open field in Sha'ar Hanagev, no injuries or damage reported.

Sha'ar Haganev is the location of the new school complex. Are they specifically targeting a school?

New high school in Sderot

Sderot, Israel - few people have ever heard of it. The new headlines are not focused on this - there are too many stories about all the other crises in the region. The only ones who take note of events in this small town on the Israel-Gaza border are those of us who closely follow events in the Middle East. We call it "rocket city."

Sderot sits within Qassam rocket range of the Gaza Strip - less than a mile from the Gaza border and about three miles from the favorite launch positions inside the Gaza Strip at Bayt Hanun. Rocket attacks are not unusual here - they have become a fact of life - since Israeli forces withdrew from the Gaza Strip on September 12, 2005. The rocket attacks began that very afternoon and have been almost daily occurrence since. They are measured not in the hundreds, but in the thousands. Almost 450 have been fired this year to date.

I visited Sderot in 2009 in the aftermath of the confrontation between Hamas and the Israeli armed forces early that year. Here are a series of my photos to give you an impression of life in a city that has experienced daily rocket attacks since the Israeli withdrawal. The residents have adapted their homes and schools - even their bus stops - to defend themselves against the rockets.

When the residents hear the loudspeakers announce in Hebrew tsevah adom (color red), they have as little as 15 seconds to get to a sheltered location. Their buildings reflect the need for immediate safety.

Looking into Gaza from Sderot
The area by the trees is Bayt Hanun, favored for rocket launches

Old school with anti-rocket add-ons

Steel awning over school play area

Reinforced bus stop/shelter

Concrete bomb shelter in town 

IDF officer with typical homemade Qassam rocket

The new $27.5 million school complex features concrete walls, reinforced windows and a layout designed to absorb and deflect rocket fire. When there is an "color red" announcement, the students no longer dash for bomb shelters - they now remain in their protected classrooms.

I applaud the city of Sderot for their dedication to their children to build a secure facility for their education. What parent would not support that effort? That said, perhaps a better solution would be "curing the disease instead of treating the symptoms."

The real issue should not be constructing armored school buildings to protect students. The real issue is to stop the Hamas-backed 'Izz al-Din al-Qassam (the cleric for whom the rockets are named) Brigades and Islamic Jihad from launching rockets into Sderot.

The Israelis tried in 2009 and stopped short of the goal. Why? World opinion - they felt that continued military operations in Gaza might turn public opinion against them. Maybe, maybe not. Many of us who have children do not want to have to build an armored school so our children can get an education.

At some point, the base issue will have to be addressed. Hopefully, that will be via diplomacy - both sides will sit down and decide that Palestinian children and Israeli children should attend school in peace.

Unfortunately, history is not on my side. Most of these situations eventually are resolved through force of arms. I, as a retired military officer, wish it were not so - I did this for a living - but I fear we will have another round of violence before the children of Sderot go to school free of rocket attacks.

"Lockerbie bomber dead" - more questions than answers

Now that former Libyan intelligence officer 'Abd al-Basit al-Maqrahi, convicted for his involvement in the bombing of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1988, has died, more questions remain about the entire affair.

These are my thoughts on the issue. I have a unique perspective on this, having served as an intelligence officer for virtually my entire professional career. There are many holes in the official version of what happened with the downing of the airliner and the deaths of 270 people. Many of my readers are familiar with my skepticism about this case, and know that I am not prone to conspiracy theories.

I have excerpted relevant portions of an article I wrote when al-Maqrahi was released from a Scottish prison, ostensibly for health and humanitarian reasons - he was expected to die within 90 days of his release. That was in August 2009. Is Scottish medicine so bad that they could have so badly diagnosed his condition? Hardly - it was corruption on an international scale, a deal with Libya for a lucrative oil contract with the UK's BP oil. (See Thoughts on the release of the "Lockerbie bomber" for the article.)

EXCERPT
I have often expressed skepticism that al-Maqrahi was a major actor in the bombing attack that destroyed Pan Am 103, killing 270 people in December 1988. If that is the case, who do I think did it?

To answer that, I want to recall a few events that led up to the attack on Pan Am 103. In 1987, Iran and Iraq had been at war for seven years - casualties from the bloody conflict were approaching one million. Although there had been U.S. Central Intelligence Agency efforts to assist the Iraqi armed forces with intelligence information as early as 1984, these never proved to be effective, owing to mistrust on both sides. By late 1987, however, the Iraqis were beginning to falter under the relentless attacks by the numerically superior Iranians who mounted fanatical human wave assaults on Iraqi troops positions.

In early 1988, the Defense Intelligence Agency prepared an assessment that concluded Iran would likely emerge victorious if the conflict continued another year. Present Reagan declared that an Iranian victory was unacceptable to American interests - he directed the Department of Defense to take steps to ensure that victory did not happen. The result was a Defense Intelligence Agency effort to provide intelligence information to the Iraqi Directorate of Military Intelligence. I was one of two officers assigned to execute this effort.

The effort was successful. With American intelligence information, along with the Iraqi use of modified Scud (al-Husayn) missiles and chemical weapons, Iraq was able to force the Iranians to accept a cease-fire in August 1988.

Just a month earlier, there was a critical event in the Persian Gulf. On July 3, an Iran Air passenger jet on a flight from Bandar Abbas to Dubai was mistakenly identified as a fighter aircraft by the USS Vincennes and shot down, killing all 290 passengers and crew.

I have met with several Iranian officers since that incident - they all believe the shoot down was intentional and intended to send a message to Tehran that the United States would not permit Iran to prevail in the war with Iraq.

When Iran accepted the ceasefire in August, they declared that they were capable of defeating the Iraqis, but not both the Iraqis and the United States. The Iranians have never forgotten our assistance to the Iraqis and the shoot down of Iran Air 655. Those are two reasons we should not have been surprised when Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers and Iranian-made weapons showed up in Iraq following the U.S, invasion in 2003.

Having failed to defeat the Iraqis, the Iranians wanted revenge against the "Great Satan." How better to avenge the death of 290 passengers and crew on an Iranian airliner than to destroy an American passenger jet. What better target than an airline that has the word "American" in its name?

Here is where the story - let's call it my analysis - takes on truly "bazaar" and bizarre dimensions. There are countries and groups that wish us ill, many for our support of Israel. One such group is the Damascus-based Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC), headed by Ahmad Jibril. Jibril's group had long been supported by the IRGC.

Who better to turn to than a known terrorist group with experience in explosives and hijackings? At some point in the fall of 1988, IRGC officers met with members of the PFLP-GC, possibly with Jibril himself. The Iranians certainly have enough money and other means of support that would be of interest to Jibril. In return, Jibril agreed to bomb an American airliner. In other words, the Iranians contracted out the hit, hoping to hide the Iranian role in the operation.

The PFLP-GC is in its own perverse way a very talented organization. Their bomb-makers have exhibited expertise in constructing improvised devices that are hard to detect. To bring down a pressurized commercial airliner flying at high altitude does not require a large explosive device. The trick is getting the device onto the aircraft and ensuring that the detonation occurs after the aircraft has reached a suitable altitude for a small device to be effective. The PFLP-GC bomb makers in Syria constructed at least five suitable devices - four were found, and I believe the fifth was the bomb that brought down Pan Am 103.

The explosive device used was concealed in a Toshiba cassette tape player. The explosive material was Semtex, the preferred explosives of terrorist organizations world wide. Until recently, the principal chemical components of Semtex, RDN and PETN, were hard to detect. It was also sold in huge quantities to Libya and Syria, among others.

In order to get the bomb onto the aircraft, the PFLP-GC may have enlisted the help of 'Abd al-Basit al-Maqrahi and another Libyan intelligence officer accused but not convicted, al-Amin Khalifah Fahimah. The investigation revealed that the bomb, hidden in the Toshiba cassette player, was packed in a Samsonite suitcase. That suitcase was placed into the interline baggage system at Malta International Airport earlier that day aboard Air Malta KM180 which moved the bag to Frankfurt, where it was placed onto Pan Am 103A (a feeder flight), flown to London and later transferred onto the Boeing 747 that operated as Pan Am 103.

'Abd al-Basit al-Maqrahi's cover position was as chief of security for Libyan Arab Airways (LAA); his intelligence service colleague Fahimah's cover was as LAA station manager at the airport in Malta. Certainly they played a role in routing the bomb-laden suitcase onto Pan Am 103. What is not known is whether al-Maqrahi and Fahimah acted alone for the PFLP-GC - who would not be adverse to recruiting the Libyans - or whether Libyan leader Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi sanctioned their participation.

The fact that Qadhafi gave up the two intelligence officers is persuasive to me that this was a rogue operation. If Qadhafi authorized the Libyan intelligence service to conduct the operation with the PFLP-GC and then gave up two of its officers, he broke faith with his intelligence service.

We intelligence officers routinely broke the laws of other countries, knowing full well that our government would never break faith with us. For that reason, I tend to believe that the two were operating on their own, probably for a large amount of money, and got caught. Qadhafi gave them up and took the blame to make peace with the West.

Is al-Maqrahi guilty? Yes, of course. Is Fahimah also guilty? Most likely - their airline covers were crucial to getting the bomb on board the Pan Am jet. That said, it was probably not sanctioned by Qadhafi. The money Libya paid in compensation is minor compared to the benefits resulting from the subsequent suspension of sanctions and later restoration of diplomatic ties with the West, including the United States.

The bottom line: the unproven culprits who have never been brought to justice for the murder of 180 American and 90 others live free in Damascus and Tehran.
END EXCERPT

Since I wrote that article, the Libyan people have overthrown, and unfortunately killed, Mu'amar al-Qafhafi. During the Libyan revolution, Libyan intelligence chief Musa Kusa (photo) defected to the United Kingdom. Kusa served as the chief of Libya's external intelligence service, the mukhabarat al-Jamahiriyah, from 1994 to 2009, thus during the Pan Am 103 operation. As part of his debriefings, Scottish authorities questioned him about the attack.

Shortly afterward, the European Union dropped all sanctions and restrictions on Kusa, and he is reportedly living well in Qatar. I would like to know just what his answers were to those questions. I suspect that my version of what happened is closer to the truth than the official version. If that is the case, there is a concerted effort to end this affair with no further blame.

There is more. Former Libyan internal security chief 'Abdullah al-Sanusi and al-Qadhafi's son Sayf al-Islam are in custody. They will likely be tried in Libya, although the International Criminal Court has indicted both of them and want to try them in The Hague. They certainly have new information on the bombing of Pan Am 103.

Given the Obama Administration's penchant for publicizing successful intelligence operations and ignoring failures, I believe that if we had learned that the official version was correct - that this was solely a Libyan operation ordered by Mua'mar al-Qadhafi and we now have the word of the Libyan intelligence chief at the time - we would have heard about it. The fact that we have not tells me there is much more to this case than we are being told.

I remain skeptical.