Iranian weapons in Yemen - is anyone surprised?

Wreckage of an Iranian-made Qiam missile recovered in Saudi Arabia

At Defense Intelligence Agency headquarters in Washington, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley displayed the remnants of an Iranian-manufactured short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) that was fired by al-Houthi rebels in Yemen at the international airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on November 4. The missile was successfully intercepted by a Patriot missile fired by Saudi air defense forces.

Along with the wreckage of the Qiam SRBM, Haley showed reporters additional Iranian-made weaponry captured from the al-Houthi group, including a guided antitank missile and an armed drone. This is a clear violation of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231* which bars Iran from the “supply, sale, or transfer of arms or related materiel from Iran.”

The fact that Iran is supplying the Houthis in Yemen with the three things required for a successful insurgency - money, weapons and training - should come as no surprise to anyone who reads even the slightest news accounts from the Middle East. Iran has been using its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qods Force for decades to provide the wherewithal to conduct insurgencies and terrorism virtually around the world.

The IRGC's operations have extended from Argentina, Cuba and Venezuela in this hemisphere to the former Yugoslavia, North Africa, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia - well, virtually everywhere in the Middle East. This includes support to non-state actors as well, with Hizballah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza being prime examples.

Yemen is no exception to Iran's foreign policy and IRGC operations. Iran takes special interest in failed states and states in which there is a significant Shi'a population - both of these factors are present in Yemen. The Shi'a comprise about 45 percent of the population of Yemen, and make up the vast majority of members of the al-Houthi (formally known as ansar allah, "supporters of God") rebel group.

We see the same interest being paid to other states with significant or majority Shi'a populations. Of course, we have seen the massive support - men and materiel - being provided to the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Asad, as well as the government of Iraq. I already mentioned the support provided by IRGC-created Lebanese Resistance, more commonly known as Hizballah. Those three countries, along with Iran itself, comprise the "Shi'a Crescent" extending from Tehran through Baghdad and Damascus to Beirut.

This land bridge will develop further - the IRGC just sent an initial overland convoy from Iran through Iraq, crossing the border into Syria at the newly-retaken Tal Ba'adi border crossing. According to Iraqi military officials - currently and nominally our allies - the convoy consisted of IRGC troops Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi'a militia fighters. Interesting side note: the Iraqi border crossings along the central Syrian border are controlled by these Popular Mobilization Unit militias, not regular Iraqi forces.

Other areas of Iranian meddling include Bahrain and the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. Bahrain, venue of the headquarters of the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet, is a majority Shi'a country ruled by a Sunni royal family. The Iranians have fomented demonstrations, including violent confrontations, against the government, demanding a greater role for the Shi'a population. A pipeline explosion last month was labeled an Iranian terrorist act by the Bahraini security services. Eventually, Iran would like to see the current government replaced with a pro-Iran (read: Shi'a) regime, and the expulsion of the Fifth Fleet from the Persian Gulf.

In Saudi Arabia, Iran's chief rival for regional influence, Iran often foments trouble among the the minority Shi'a population. The Shi'a in the kingdom are thought to be only about 10 to 15 percent of the overall population, and are concentrated in the Eastern Province. This province is the largest in Saudi Arabia and home to much of the kingdom's oil facilities. When relations between the two countries deteriorate, Iranian-inspired/directed trouble in the province is expected.

The Iranians regard themselves as the leaders, sponsors and protectors of all things Shi'a. They have successfully made themselves a force to be reckoned with in the Persian Gulf and the larger Middle East. It should come as no surprise to see Iranian IRGC members, including the Qods Force, and Iranian weapons in areas where a Shi'a presence can be exploited.

Yemen - a failed state with a large Shi'a minority - is a prime target for Iran.

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* UNSCR 2231 Annex B, paragraph 6b: [All States are to:] Take the necessary measures to prevent, except as decided otherwise by the UN Security Council in advance on a case-by-case basis, the supply, sale, or transfer of arms or related materiel from Iran by their nationals or using their flag vessels or aircraft, and whether or not originating in the territory of Iran, until the date five years after the JCPOA Adoption Day or until the date on which the IAEA submits a report confirming the Broader Conclusion, whichever is earlier.

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Proposed U.S. arms sale to Bahrain - the wrong weapons

The State Department announced that it will take into consideration an upcoming report on how Bahrain handled recent protests in the Gulf kingdom before approving the proposed sale of $53 million of American-made weapons. The State Department announcement is in response to Democratic senators who voiced concern that United States was in effect arming a nation who may have abused its citizens' human rights. They cite the Egyptian example that we might be perceived as arming a repressive government, a perception that in the future might harm our relations with the Bahraini people.

I have problems with the arms sale package, but not because of the concern over the ruling family in the Kingdom of Bahrain. My issue is with the makeup of the arms package itself - we're selling them the wrong weapons for their needs. I understand that a $53 million sale would be nice for contractors AM General and Raytheon, but isn't someone advising the Bahrainis on what they need?

Let's take a look at the relationship between the United States and Bahrain. Bahrain has been a staunch ally of the United States for years, in fact, the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet is headquartered in the island kingdom. The Bahraini royal family, the Al Khalifah, is Sunni in a 70 percent Shi'a country. Because of the Shi'a's natural affinity for the Iranians, Iran has been a constant thorn in the side of the Al Khalifah. The United States supports Bahrain's efforts to minimize Iranian influence on the island. Despite that, the Iranians have fomented unrest in the Shi'a community. The Iranians have gone so far as to claim that Bahrain is actually part of Iran.

Given the fact that the kingdom is ruled by a Sunni minority, it is doubtful that in a future change of government the Shi'a majority will ever gravitate towards the United States, so I think we should not consider how our support of the al Khalifah is viewed by the Shi'a. When push comes to shove, they will align with their Shi'a allies in Tehran.

The proposed $53 million arms package consists of 44 up-armored Humvees, 48 TOW anti-tank missile launchers, almost 300 TOW missiles (in various configurations), and associated night sighting devices. 

Approval of the sale requires the Defense Security Cooperation Agency to certify that it will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States, specifically in this case, "by helping to improve the security of a major non-NATO ally that has been, and continues to be, an important force for political stability and economic progress in the Middle East. The proposed sale will improve Bahrain’s capability to meet current and future armored threats. Bahrain will use the enhanced capability as a deterrent to regional threats and to strengthen its homeland defense."

This is where I have a problem. Armored Humvees and TOW missiles constitute an anti-armor capability, defending against tanks and armored personnel carriers. From the certification: "The proposed sale will improve Bahrain’s capability to meet current and future armored threats." Hey, DOD, just where is that armored threat?

Bahrain is an island in the Persian Gulf. It's nearest neighbors are Saudi Arabia, less than 20 miles to the west, and Qatar, a little over 20 miles to the east. Bahrain is connected to Saudi Arabia by a causeway. Iran, which might pose the greatest threat to the kingdom, is over 100 miles away across the Persian Gulf.

I am having trouble picturing an armored vehicle threat to Bahrain. Perhaps the Saudis - a close ally of Bahrain, by the way - might run an armored column down the causeway? First, they would not do that. Bahrain has fairly liberal rules when it comes to Islam - Manama has bars and nightclubs. The causeway is usually packed on Wednesday (last day of the Saudi workweek) afternoons with Saudis heading for what passes for "sin city" in the region.

Which brings me to the next point. In the far-fetch likelihood of an attempted incursion via the causeway, it could easily be stopped with air power. It is hard to imagine any real land threat to Bahrain. Is someone postulating that the Iranians would attempt an amphibious assault across the Persian Gulf? Here again, the answer is air and sea power.

As with many of these small Gulf nations, Bahrain's best "bang for the buck" (excuse the obvious pun) lies in acquiring a capable air force and navy. A potent air force and navy can blunt almost any threat to Bahrain, or at least buy enough time for more capable allied forces such as the United States and Saudi Arabia to enter the fray.

Humvees and TOW missiles? I would ask if anyone at the Pentagon has actually thought this through, but the answer is obvious in their certification: "The proposed sale will improve Bahrain’s capability to meet current and future armored threats."

In case I am being too subtle, that's a no.

Bahrain - the next domino?

Another American ally is now dealing with a popular uprising. For several days now, thousands of Bahrainis have taken to the streets of Manama, some calling for political reform, others calling for the overthrow of the royal family. Unfortunately, the demonstrations appear to be growing more sectarian in nature.

It is impossible to say how the situation will resolve itself in Bahrain, but there are signs that King Hamad bin 'Isa Al Khalifah and his son Crown Prince Shaykh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifah are willing to make compromises to end the uprising and maintain their hold on power. What happens in Bahrain will have an impact on American foreign policy in the region.

Bahrain is the home of the headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, the maritime component of the U.S. Central Command; it is called U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) in that context.

A short history of the Fifth Fleet - In 1879, the USS Ticonderoga was the first American warship to sail through the Straits of Hormuz. In 1949, the U.S. Navy established a regular presence in the region, known as the Middle East Force. In 1971, when Bahrain achieved full independence, the U.S. Navy leased part of a former British base and named it Administrative Support Unit, Bahrain. In 1995, the Fifth Fleet and NAVCENT were commissioned to command the ships that rotationally deploy from the United States or other fleets. As Iranian influence rises in the region, the American naval presence in the Gulf remains a key part of our commitment to our Gulf Arab allies.

The king and crown prince appear to have decided to try and reach an accommodation with the people of Bahrain. I think the royal family was surprised at the size of the demonstrations and the tenor of the demands, including calls for the overthrow of the king. After initially sending in military and security forces to quell the demonstrations, the crown prince, wisely in my opinion, decided to remove the soldiers and riot police and allow the people to gather.

There will be changes in Bahrain, to be sure. The question is what kind of changes and how that affects U.S. access to the naval base in Manama. Is the base critical to American maritime operations in the Gulf? Not really. For years, the Navy operated the Middle East Force from a command ship; it can do that again if necessary. Is it preferable to have an on-shore presence? Absolutely, but let's not overemphasize the importance of the facility.

The real danger comes if the ruling family is forced to accept demands that secularize the country. Bahrain is a fairly liberal place, as Arab countries go. There are western style hotels, complete with bars and night clubs. The country is a haven for the socially-repressed Saudis who flock to the tiny kingdom on Wednesdays for the Arab weekend.

Bahrain is one of the four countries in the world where Shi'a Muslims constitute the majority of the population, and one of only two Arab countries (the other is Iraq). Conversely, the royal family and ruling elite of the kingdom are Sunni Muslims. As it has in Iraq and Lebanon, Iran has sought to make a connection to the Shi'a of Bahrain, supporting their efforts to become the dominant force on the island.

Iranian support has not always been limited to political rhetoric. As far back as the late 1990's, there were reports that Iran was providing Hizballah trainers to Bahraini Shi'a groups. It helps to have Arabic-speaking trainers rather than the Farsi-speaking members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Thanks to Wikileaks, we know that King Hamad advised General David Petraeus in 2008 that his government believed that Iran and Syria were facilitating the training of Bahraini Shi'a in Lebanon.

Iran also claims ownership of the island based on Iranian governance in the 17th and 18th Centuries, eventually losing control of the island to the British. They recently reiterated that claim, which is likely to put pressure on the Al Khalifah dynasty and express support for the Shi'a majority.

There is another party with a stake in what happens in Bahrain - Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is Iran's major rival in the Persian Gulf, and sits a mere 20 miles from the island of Bahrain. Having Iranian control over Bahrain, either directly or indirectly via the Shi'a population, would be a problem for both the United States and the Saudis.

The situation in Bahrain is just one of several flash points in the region, some involving American allies. With uprisings in Yemen, Jordan, Libya and Iran following the changes in governments in Tunisia and Egypt, Bahrain may be the next domino to fall. Which way it falls should be of concern.